Is the Tripartite Process Destined for the Deep Freeze?

The more dramatic news this week is undoubtedly the repeat incident that has occurred between The Royal Gibraltar Police and the Spanish Guardia Civil in British Gibraltar Territorial Waters. This incident may by itself destine the tripartite process to the deep  freeze at the initiative of Gibraltar  (although it is probably the appropriate forum to discuss solutions to ensure the security and enforcement of law and order at sea) but it is also having the effect of overshadowing a prior important piece of news.

The news item in question is that the Spanish Foreign Minister, Ms Trinidad Jimenez, is reported as having said that she wishes to cool down the tripartite process and does not wish to give impetus to further tripartite meetings. This news is reported online in "El Confidencial Digital" on the 23rd April 2011. It is subsequently repeated (from that same source) in the Spanish newspaper ABC. The report gives one reason for Ms Jimenez having formed this view as being that Ms Jimenez feels Peter Caruana in this election year will want to gain votes from the sovereignty issue and that she does not wish to play that game.

Assuming that this report is accurate. It raises two glaring questions in my mind. First, why is Spain so concerned with Peter Caruana gaining votes at the forthcoming election from the sovereignty issue using the tripartite process? Secondly, is Spain's actions in consonance with past agreements and/or pronouncements made jointly by Britain and Spain on Gibraltar?

My view is that on both fronts Spain is cutting its nose to spite its face. Past history shows that Spanish policies toward Gibraltar have this tendency. The most salient example was the closure of the frontier by Franco's Spain. That Spain cuts its nose to spite itself is probably much to the pleasure of the vast majority of Gibraltar. That Spain should concern itself with Gibraltar's elections  is an unnecessary and uncalled for interference in Gibraltar's internal politics. It may result in unintended consequences for Spain.

If indeed the reason given by Ms Jimenez is a true reason (difficult to believe that such direct interference in internal matters would exist), then one must conclude from it that the Spanish Foreign Secretary, and, therefore the Spanish Government, want to see the end of Peter Caruana's government. That analysis can only lead to a further conclusion which is that the Spanish Government see Peter Caruana as a hindrance to advancing its case to recover the sovereignty of Gibraltar. If that conclusion is right, the actions and statements of Ms Jimenez do not undermine but rather increase Peter Caruana's chances of being returned to office. The very opposite of what it is reported that she may want to achieve.

Why? Simple, she is giving Peter Caruana the very foundation by which he can convince the people of Gibraltar that British sovereignty is in safer hands under a government led by him than any other person. When will the Spanish Government bring into account, in determining its policy toward Gibraltar, that the vast majority of Gibraltar does not want a change in the sovereignty status of Gibraltar. Until Spain factors in this basic reality nothing will change because, in its eagerness to achieve its aims, it will follow policies and take actions that will not advance its case, much to the joy of Gibraltar. The Gibraltar problem will not be solved it will be dissolved, as Gibraltar's canny politician Sir Joshua Hassan used to say.

This brings me conveniently to my explanation of my views on the second question. Ms Jimenez intentions are clearly at odds with recent historical agreements and/or pronouncements. Let us ignore what agreement and/or pronouncement is or is not extant. Let us just look at two themes that are a common thread, remembering that both Spain and Britain have signed up to all of them.

Beginning with the Brussels Agreement of 1984, in that agreement, it was accepted that the British Government would fully maintain its commitment in the constitution to the people of Gibraltar, namely not to transfer sovereignty against the wishes of the people of Gibraltar. The agreement also clearly indicated the desire for mutually beneficial co-operation on economic, cultural, touristic, aviation, military and environmental matters.

In the much decried joint sovereignty statement made to the UK Parliament in 2002 by the then Secretary of State for Commonwealth and Foreign Affairs, Jack Straw, one of these same themes come across again.  He emphasizsed that any package that came out would be put to the people of Gibraltar in a referendum. It would be the people of Gibraltar who would decide. Any package had to be acceptable to the people of Gibraltar.

Then in 2004 came the Trilateral Agreement in which it was agreed that "... through this forum of dialogue ... the parties shall endeavour to create a constructive atmosphere of mutual confidence and co-operation for the benefit and prosperity of Gibraltar and the whole region, in particular the Campo de Gibraltar". Once again a repeat of the desire to co-operate for everyone's benefit.

The recurring themes are, first, that in the end analysis the people of Gibraltar will decide on issues of sovereignty but, secondly, an atmosphere of mutual trust would be built up, by co-operation on many fronts for the benefit of the communities on each side of the frontier. This has greatly benefitted the Campo de Gibraltar economically already and continues to do so. The regional economy is not in a state for the Spanish Government to take steps that will undermine the enormous economic benefit brought to the region by Gibraltar.

Taking into account these arguments, it is nigh on impossible to accept that the report in"El Confidencial Digital" is accurate. It is difficult, if not impossible, to believe that Ms Jimenez will undermine Spain's own attempts at creating an atmosphere for long term normalisation of the issues that surround the sovereignty of Gibraltar and could adversely impact on the immediate hinterland's economic prospects. Time will tell but I am incredulous that the progress made so far, albeit small in the eyes of Spain,  will be reversed by a decision by Spain's Foreign Secretary to freeze the tripartite process. This is especially the case now that both the GSD and GSLP parties are committed to this process on the basis that it has no adverse sovereignty connotations. This condition is an unavoidable reality whilst popular sentiments in Gibraltar continue to be  as they are.