Elections, My Blog, My Election Candidature and some Bits and Bobs

Its the Easter Long Weekend and so news is limited. It is a good time to ponder and write about a few ideas, thoughts and possibilities, especially as it is looking more and more likely that the election will be in the Autumn, not late spring or early summer as some had speculated. This has not come as a surprise to me. I was the person who on GBC's "Viewpoint" opted for an October election.

If the election is in October, the only available date is the 27th because the two weeks immediately preceding that date are jewish holidays that, I believe, fall on Thursdays  Thursday is the favoured day for elections. It could be the first Thursday of November but unlikely to be much later because under the Constitution Parliament is dissolved mid-November. If the Chief Minister delays too much it would take away his advantage of surprise. Surprise that will not in fact advantage his party, the GSD, too much because everyone seems ready and poised for an election at any time. The main issue for the Chief Minister, as I see it, on timing is assessing if and when the GSD's  "goodies", which would include his favoured projects being completed, might help the GSD at the ballot box.

Some have suggested to me that my declaration that I will stand for election has undermined the authority and credibility of what I write on this blog. I would beg to differ. I will be standing as an Independent, which is the first argument against that criticism. Also, I have published the Core Principles upon which I will base my election campaign. These Core Principles are focussed on but, more importantly, they directly reflect the views that I have expressed (and continue to express) on this blog. I do not believe that anyone is non-political in a partisan way, each have either more conservative or, as is my case, more liberal leanings. My politics are clearly reflected in what I write on this blog and what I have written long before even deciding to stand for election, so what I write is not and cannot be compromised by my election candidature. My election candidature does not, therefore, reduce the impact of what I write or make it more partial. The opposite is true. It shows my openness, frankness and transparency.

Others have suggested that tactically it would be better for me to stand at the election alone. Others have commented exactly the opposite that breaking the "Block Vote" alone is an impossibility. I have been pondering this conundrum long and hard. I am beginning to be convinced by the former rather than the latter camp. There are various reasons for this. First and importantly it is massively difficult to get people to openly declare themselves as candidates for a group that has only a speculative chance of success. Candidates for the GSD and GSLP are incentivised and, indeed, protected in their personal and work lives, by both the prospect of success and the collective power of each of those parties. The PDP gathers together many of the dissidents of both the GSD and GSLP who are prepared to openly stand for election. That leaves a very small or even non-existent pool of people from which to find 10 candidates to field at an election.

The choice one has is either to field 10 candidates or to go it alone, any lesser number diminishes the chances of successfully breaking the "block vote" because one is not offering an alternative government. The reason is that one individual candidate with a well aimed campaign can mop up votes from both the GSD and the GSLP. The strategy would be to target the weakest candidate from each of these parties. At the same time promoting the reality that one Independent candidate in Parliament, whilst a lone voice, would be a dissident voice that can be a catalyst for major change in Gibraltar politics and democracy. The mathematically possible best result is 8 GSD, 8 GSLP and me! However it is statistically highly improbable and, probably, also politically so because of the "presidential" style of electing a Chief Minister by "block voting" for the 10 candidates of one party, thus converting 10 votes into 1. That result, however, would ensure a democratic revolution in Gibraltar.

I have been asked whether I have people to help in an election campaign. The answer to that is that I have many volunteers whom I would like to thank immediately. I also wish to apologise to them because I still need to organise a meeting. I have been under extreme pressure at work for the last 8 weeks, aside from writing and moderating this blog. I have a relatively busy schedule after Easter but I have to and will make time to organise that meeting. It is important because I will then not be alone, at the very least, from an organisational position. I would hope that a small group would be assigned certain responsibilities which would be a great help and relief to me.

As for any campaign, obviously an individual Independent candidate is at an enormous disadvantage. He  or she gets less air time on GBC and less newsprint in the written press, importantly the Chronic and Panorama. The internet is the important new media that can counteract this disadvantage, not to call it a democratic deficit. In this matter the PDP are right. Gibraltar's election system is one of individual voters yet the press treat the contest as exclusively a party one.

There is no point fighting that, it is the way it is, so one has to attempt to get ones message out in alternative media and by preempting an election and getting as much coverage as possible in the traditional press well before the election campaign. I have done both so far thanks to this blog. This blog spawned a very successful Facebook page with over 2200  adherents with whom I can communicate instantaneously. That will make a difference because they will become my campaigners by stimulating interest and discussion within their families, friends, clubs bars and restaurants. Lets see what happens ...

I cannot be more open, frank and transparent. I have laid bear all my thoughts and plans for the next election. I am sure that I will receive many differing views and opinions following this piece. They are all welcome, will be looked at, considered and put into the melting pot. I believe that change is on the card but is going from the GSD to the GSLP sufficiently radical? I believe it is not. Electing catalysts into Parliament will make the change that so many want. The only way to achieve it is to break the "Block Vote".