Sunday 25 September 2011

November Election? Some Current Considerations.

According to a story in Panorama the Chief Minister has indicated, on a Spanish Radio programme, that the election will be held before Christmas. Leaving aside the bizarreness of the Chief Minister having ignored his own constituency in Gibraltar by making this statement in Spain, this announcement will agitate more and more speculation. Speculation about who may be leaving politics, who may be standing for election, what pre-election coalitions might be formed and who might win the election. 

What is extraordinary about the whole process is that, weeks before a General Election, the electorate  do not know yet who many of the candidates will be. It just seems to me to be an oddity that political parties should consider that retaining this mystery is in any way an advantage. To me it is further proof of the deficiency in party organisations. These deficiencies contribute to reducing the effectiveness of democracy in Gibraltar. It is also another factor that further helps to propagate the belief that a General Election is an election of a Chief Minister and a Leader of the Opposition. Thus rendering the election presidential in style rather than what it should be, an election for individual representatives to Parliament. It is from amongst those elected that a Chief Minister and Government is formed. 10 votes essentially become 1 vote. 

The added reason for this effect that I term the "presidential effect" is that the combined lack of constituencies/wards and each voter having 10 votes means that no individual actually elects a single identifiable MP who can or will be his/her personal representative in Parliament. This is an added aspect of the existing system that contributes to the "democratic deficit". It is a further aspect of the present electoral system that needs to be looked at. Personal representation in Parliament needs to be improved. How? I am not presently sure, but solutions must exist. Resolving this issue will also reduce reliance on the Chief Minister to resolve individual problems. This will reduce the opportunity for deification of that office.

I do not believe that speculation of the nature that I have alluded to really helps to unravel what may happen at the forthcoming election. What does help is to analyse known factors. Let us look at some of these. First, we know that Peter Caruana will lead the GSD, Fabian Picardo will lead the GSLP and Keith Azopardi will lead the PDP. The leadership of each, meaning not the personality but how each leads his team, will be an or even the crucial deciding element for many in this election. Personality, however, cannot be totally discarded. It always plays its part.

Keith starts from the disadvantageous position of leading the least (by far) supported party. It is for this reason that the PDP needed a charismatic leader. It does not have it in Keith. Keith does not have it in him to enhance the electoral chances of the PDP. It must, consequently rely on two factors to do that. First its policies. Secondly its other candidates. On the first front the PDP's choices have narrowed because the other two parties have adopted democratic reforms as policies, which is what the PDP was majoring on. The result is that, now, the debate will be on detail of these reforms rather than the overall concept. On the second front, all we know to date is that the PDP has a full slate of candidates ... that Nick Cruz and Gigi Vasquez are likely candidates and little more on the identity of its candidature ... not very helpful. One would have thought that a party totally lacking in representation in Parliament would want to announce its candidature early in order to give its candidates as long a time as possible to create a public personae. It seems that this is not to be. There may be a game plan in that strategy but it escapes me.

Fabian, in the perception of some of the public, carries some personal baggage, but who does not? It is in the style of the GSD to pinpoint such baggage. I have doubts that it will impact sufficiently amongst most voters to undermine the GSLP/Liberal's chance of election. If the GSD dedicates its efforts to personal criticisms of Fabian, this has the disadvantage of distracting from real issues. I believe that the important debate is on issues. In this regard, whilst the GSLP/Liberal Alliance (not Fabian alone)  must not ignore personal attacks, it must rebut them robustly, it must not do so in a manner that detracts from policies and substance.

In this regard the GSLP/Liberals have made an excellent start. It has identified the "democratic deficit" issue. It has seen the GSD's failure on this front. It has stepped into a void that the GSD had no need to leave open, nor did it have the right to do so. It promised reforms and never delivered them. There are skeptics who (a) do not believe that the GSLP/Liberals are serious on reforms and (b) say that this policy will not be central to voters' decisions on who to vote for. 

On the first argument, It would be political suicide for the GSLP/Liberals not to undertake reforms having been so explicit on some e.g. freedom of information and having publicly announced its intention to reform the electoral system and Parliament following recommendations from an Independent Commission. Ignoring the Commissions report totally would also be political suicide. The process announced by the GSLP/Liberals also has the advantage that it is likely to deliver broader reforms.

On the second argument, of course there will be many other important issues and debates, but the reform one is equally or more important, certainly in the view of a large number of voters. It is also important for a completely different reason. The GSD persists with its attempts at discrediting the GSLP by constantly regurgitation the pre-1996 state of affairs but what better way to counteract the attempt to create the impression that the GSLP has not changed its spots, than to have policies that would preclude the possibility of that happening? Improved and more accountable democracy is the best check and balance to avoid a return to behaviour similar to that of those disagreeable pre-1996 days. That is not exclusively a problem attaching to the GSLP. It is something that, in the absence of systemic checks, could happen with any party in Government.

The other manner in which the electorate can be convinced that the pre-1996 image of the GSLP is finished and gone (aside from the contents of its manifesto and policies) is the standard of its candidature. One achievement is the change in leadership. Another is that most of its candidates have been in Parliament and for better or for worse are a known quantity. A third is that the standard of potential candidates so far announced is good. We have Dr Norbert Borge, Joe Cortes and George Mascarenhas who may be candidates, subject to selection. All are well respected members of the community, so long as this is the standard of candidates, such persons would not permit themselves to be in any way identified with pre-1996 style GSLP government.

What about the GSD? The massive advantage that it seems to see is that it has been in Government for 16 years and it has achieved a lot in that time. No one will deny it that. Its main achievements, however, are the reversal of the adverse image and reputation that Gibraltar had garnered before its election. However, Gibraltar will not lose its reputation ever again for similar reasons. The lesson has been learnt by all politicians in Gibraltar.

Apart form cleaning up Gibraltar's image, the reality is that the economy has been built up by the GSD on the strong foundations laid by the GSLP pre-1996 administration. This is not a criticism. It is, first, a fact and, secondly, it is necessarily so because Gibraltar's economy can only be built on opportunistically taking advantage of its limited resources: the port, its location (for tourism), size (that delimits requirements) and speed of action on fiscal and regulatory policies. The other reality is that, whilst the government has money coming in and the ability to borrow, it can spend and has the GSD spent! Let us hope that it has not been profligate to a level that the present international economic crisis will not impact badly on Gibraltar's ability to attract revenues. Otherwise in time we will realise that the GSD have bitten off more than what Gibraltar can chew.

The GSD has some electoral problems. The first is undoubtedly wastage. It will over 16 years of Government have upset individual and groups of voters. This is inevitable but makes it more important that the GSD finds other new supporters to vote for it. It will  not do so by attacking the GSLP/Liberals. It will not do so by boasting of past achievements, the electorate has these in the bag already. it will only do so by having new policies and creating a new identity. It has not done much to achieve this. The perception is that it is a party lacking in continuity and in ideas. That it is a party resting on its laurels and those laurels belong to one person: Peter Caruana. It has also failed to react to changing demographics: the passing away of older voters and the advent of the young, who will have very different views from past GSD voters. The GSD are now reacting but it may be too little too late.

Additionally the one individual Minister who can be said to have worked tirelessly to positive effect in his ministry is Daniel Feetham, may not stand at the next election. He has revised and reformed large swathes of law relating to justice. I am  not sure that in practice some of those reforms will not cause issues and too much expenditure for a small jurisdiction like Gibraltar but this is possibly an inevitable cost that we will need to face. I understand the reasons for his not standing; to be stabbed in the presence of his and other children is traumatic. That the stabbing happened because he was Minister for Justice is obvious. That his family and, probably, he feels the risk involved in public office is too great is obvious. My sadness both relates to the event that may force him to resign but also because he has done and behaved in his ministry as I consider an elected Minister should act and behave. He has innovated and held policies, fought for them (including the age of consent law, where the Supreme Court upheld his view), taken them to Parliament and enacted legislation. He has carved out an individual political character for himself to the benefit of his party, the GSD. He is the only person to have done this in the 16 years of GSD Government. The general perception is that all the rest that has been done by the GSD is down to one person: the Chief Minister. 

Therefore the forthcoming election becomes a plebiscite on the Chief Minister. I say that because he has acted in a manner that makes it that way. I hope the other party leaders do not follow suit. I would hope that what we have seen developing so far as the election approaches continues. We have seen the PDP and the GSLP/Liberals announce and debate policies. I hope it continues that way. If the GSD attempts to reduce the election to personalities, in the main, the other parties should  leave the GSD alone to get on with that tactic. I believe it is counterproductive. I believe that voters do not like it. I believe sticking to the issues and to substance will deliver more votes. The GSD may want to ponder on that suggestion too. The GSD have also made the same error as the other parties in not having announced which, if any new candidates it will present to the electorate. 

When do I think the election will be held? Well the 19th October is Gibraltar day in London, so, unless the Chief Minister compounds the error made by his statement about the election on Spanish radio, by announcing the election in London, it will be announced after that date. The election cannot be held before the Electors List is closed on the 31st October. Christmas is fast approaching that leaves only a few Thursdays on which the election can be held, namely, 24th November or the 1st, 8th or 15th December. The 8th is the Immaculate Conception, which is a Catholic Holy Day of Obligation, thus it is an unlikely date, the 15th is too close to Christmas, so we are down to two dates ; we will see.

What do I think will happen at the election? Well I do not disbelieve that so many polls will have got the result too wrong. I also believe in anecdotal evidence, namely natural wastage and demographic alterations. Change is clearly visibly in the air and the GSD are doing little to put a brake on change. All in all I would predict a GSLP/Liberals win by a small but significant margin but all say that a week in politics is a long time ...

205 comments:

  1. Yes, he allegedly told the Spanish media it would be held this year but we haven't seen the precise quote. He may have said something like "likely to be held" or "may possibly be held". I think there is still a possibility that he may well take it right down to the wire and hold off until February next year, by which time the various projects being carried out at breakneck speed, including many hours of overtime by construction workers on weekends, will be completed - notably the new air terminal which is nowhere near ready for inauguration. Delaying until Feb 2011 would allow him to deliver one last New Year message - and inaugurate his biggest and most ambitious project: the new air terminal. What he wants to avoid at all costs is for the shiny plaque at the new Gib International Airport to say: "inaugurated by Fabian Picardo MP, Chief Minister".

    ReplyDelete
  2. NOT JUST FABIAN PICARDO MP CHIEF MINISTER but FABIAN PICARDO QC MP CHIEF MINISTER. If Caruana got a poltical QCship so should Picki o es que na ma se da eso a lo del pish?

    ReplyDelete
  3. You got it wrong, Robert. It is not just a plebiscite on the chief minister. It is also a test on which GSD candidate has the greatest electoral leverage. Whichever candidate has the ambition of building a profile within the GSD after the next election (Benzaquen and his right-wing views, Bossino and his GNP past) had better come up with a good showing at the polls.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous at 19:50

    if you have your eye on the longer term future you are right,

    I would hope Gibraltar is more perceptive than to back Benzaquen. I do not believe he offers anything to politics ... If he is the best that the GSD can come up with, I am afraid the GSD's electoral chances will not be improved.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree. Benzaquen has nothing to offer other than verbal dhiarroea....

    ReplyDelete
  6. What has our educational system come to since the Christian Brothers went back to Ireland? The word for Mr. Benzaquen's condition is "Diarrhoea". Don't you have a spell checker?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous at 20:29

    Your reliance on spell check does not say much for what you may have learnt :P

    ReplyDelete
  8. Robert, on what basis are you condemning Benzaquen? Engage him in a debate, test him out and then form an opinion. His articles in the Chronicle may have been rather too market-oriented for me but, hey, did anyone challenge them at an intellectual level? Not you, I recall.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous at 20:37

    Bring him on ... I am here always :)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sounds promising, Robert. Any particular subject?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous at 20:41

    The subjects I write about are very varied ... so the current subject of any blog is fine by me.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I do know that Benzaquen doesn't follow this blog. I'll pass on the message to him and, if I know him at all, he'll take you on.

    ReplyDelete
  13. It sounds personal. Have you got personal issues wih this guy Benzaquen?

    ReplyDelete
  14. So that explains your objectivity then.

    ReplyDelete
  15. This string is making me curious about who this guy Benzaquen is.

    El Montarik

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous at 20:53

    I am not trying to explain anything LOL

    ReplyDelete
  17. You miss the point. Never mind.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous at 20:58

    No I do not.

    He is a lawyer. He has drafted laws. He has advised on matters and I have seen his advice. I have a vote. Based on the evidence that I have seen for myself, I would not cast the vote in his favour that is called exercising my democratic vote.

    If that is what you mean by my being personal then you are right but being personal has a different meaning for me. It means that I have a personal dislike of him because I have had a personal issue of difference with him. I have not and never have,

    ReplyDelete
  19. Nothing you have said here tells us that you know anything about his politics.

    El Montarik

    ReplyDelete
  20. El Montarik

    True but even so I will not change my own mind. Others can and will come to a different conclusion possibly.

    ReplyDelete
  21. It is said that Benzaquen is one of those people who thinks that he is special not for anything that he has done or said but because he is. There are unfortunately many like him in our community. I agree I do not think that he could carry any argument and I would not choose that kind of person anyway. As sir Joshua might have said: "Quien es ese Benzaquen?"

    ReplyDelete
  22. We are none the wiser, Robert. Votes are based on political informed choices.

    El Montarik

    ReplyDelete
  23. Benzaquen does not read this blog! Woooh! It is beneath him is it? WHO IS THIS CHARACTER?!?!?

    ReplyDelete
  24. You seem to be mixing the professional with the political here, and yet with Picardo you do not do so even if he has been mentioned negatively by a High Court judge. You go further and ask us to take a chance on him!

    ReplyDelete
  25. This has become a pointless argument ... each one to his own my own view will not change... can we get back to the topic of my blog?

    ReplyDelete
  26. I think you got tyhe dates wrong. If the register has to be completed by 31 October, the earlisest the election can be held is the 3rd December. The Parliament RUles provide for a minimum of 28 days notiuce.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous at 21:34

    You are right on the 28 days but, the election can be called but not held until the register is ready, so the CM can call the election before the 31st October.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I disagree I think that Benzaquen and Montegriffo (Luis) are la creme de la creme of GSD politics and the future of our Gibraltar.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Anonymous at 21:46

    I respect your view but exactly what future are you referring to?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Under the Parliament Act nothing provides that the government need to wait for a new register to be compiled to call an election. If the new one is not ready the existing one stands.

    ReplyDelete
  31. On a serious note it will be very difficult for new comers to either party but more so to the party in Government. Ministers develop a personal vote over the years and so do Opposition members of Parliament. Any newcomers are likely to stay out on the losing side.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Anonymous at 21:51

    Correct, as a matter of law, but having opened the register the CM is hardly likely to ignore it.

    ReplyDelete
  33. In theory what recourse do we have if Caruana does not call an election. Will the courts force him to do so or should we resort to an uprising?

    ReplyDelete
  34. I think they can lead Gibraltar and steer our community through troubled waters ahead. Mr carauna is not going to stay forever and Luis and Rafael are the kind of people we need at this moment in time. Loyal, articulate and tenacious.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I think that it is the PDP, as opposed to the GSLP, who should receive the credit for promoting more transparency and open government. The electorate knows that this was the mainstay of PDP policies last time round. It sounds like political opportunism to me that the GSLP wish to fly this flag, given their silence on the matter for 16 years.

    It would be political suicide for any party, at this stage given the prominence given to the reforms, not to deliver change once elected. I think any of the 3 parties would take seriously the need to make these changes. This does not mean the GSLP are the most likely to implement the changes.

    Did you help Fabian draft the proposals for change by any chance??

    Also that the potential GSLP candidates do not identify with the pre-1996 GSLP style of government, which needless to say is a good thing, they nevertheless some are very new to the electorate and need to raise their profiles. I agree that the same applies to any new faces in the other parties.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Anonymous at 21:54

    an uprising is not needed. Under the Constitution Parliament is automatically dissolved on the 4th anniversary of the first meeting after the previous election and an election has to be held within 4 months of dissolution.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Sorry but this is getting out of control who the blazes are Luis and Rafael. It seems that all Gibraltar's saviours are loyal, articulate and tenacious but unknown.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Sam

    No I did not help Fabian draft any proposals at all including the proposals for any change. However, my views are very public, including in this blog, so he may well have drawn from them.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Anonymous 21:51, that is unless the electorate has had their fill of a particular politician’s own special brand of codswallop. I imagine that many of the current MP’s are in for a rude awakening.

    Some of the potential candidates on either side of the political divide are much more enticing than some of those in the current crop.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Anon@21.57 what planet have you been on, Luis performed brilliantly in a debate on gbc earlier this year and Rafael's opinion columns in the chronicle have a significant following.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Let's face it. The only member of the Bar to have take on Fabian at an intellectual level is Benzaquen with his Chronicle articles. Not once did Fabian ever defend his position.

    ReplyDelete
  42. anon @21.57....
    what planet are YOU on? louis got SLATED at the debate, so much so that his credibility went down the toilet, and Benzaquen's articles are used for insomniacs!

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anon 22.01 it's always been like that: Clive Golt in 1996, Vijay in 2000, Marin in 2003, balban and chelaram in 2007 ..............

    ReplyDelete
  44. The problem with Benzaquen is that he is highly unpopular as well as not good enough in politics, so he doesn't stand a chance, no matter who he crawls up to, he is a liability at an election!

    ReplyDelete
  45. Come on just because Luis has a view on democracy which is different from yours doesn't mean he did badly in that debate. I thought he was outstanding myself.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Sorry folks the Comment posted aT 20:50 appeared showing me as the author. I was not. It was an anonymous commentator. It now appears at 22:17.

    Apologies for messing up the thread!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Anon at 22.17 Well I am told Joe Holliday regards him very highly and Joe is a very shrewd and experienced political operator.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Now that we are talking about uncle Tom Cobleigh and all, what happened to Jaimito Levy who was going to storm into 6 Convent Place? All hot air and wind methinks! And please nobody write in asking "Quien es ese Jaimito?".

    ReplyDelete
  49. Unpopular with who, Anon@22.17? The GSLP crowd no doubt, who have proven incapable of answering any of the arguements he has raised in the Chronicle.

    ReplyDelete
  50. I have no time for politics but I tried reading Mr. Benzaquen's articles in the Chronicle and found them light and boring. I bet no body can remember a single pint that he made bacause he did no make any. Gib politics is looking like a circus Rafael, Luis, jaimito let 's get serious brothers and sisters.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Anon at 22.38, let's condescend to particulars. Picardo argues that Gibtel should be kept government owned to protect employment. Benzaquen argues that, to protect employment, Gibtel did not need to be in government hands - it could be done through regulatory means and explained how. Did Fabian defend his position? No!

    ReplyDelete
  52. Is that why the GSLP sold half of Gibtel? LOL

    ReplyDelete
  53. Anonymous at 22:43

    I did not read the pieces but on what you say I could not agree that regulation can maintain employment in a business that is required to make a return for investors. It just does not work. To think otherwise is simply to be naive. In the private sector only money and return on investment rules.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Wait till Benzaquen is in Parliament. He will destroy Picardo with his rapier like intellect.

    ReplyDelete
  55. That is just the point, Robert. Fabian's argument is that Gibtel should be run as a quasi public service and not a business. Why else would you need to "protect employment". Businesses would hire as necessary without the need for government intervention.

    ReplyDelete
  56. This is great now we know one of Benzaquen's arguments and it is utterly wrong headed. Keep people employed through regulation, what a loan of tosh. LOL / ROFL!

    ReplyDelete
  57. Anonymous at 22:50

    The we agree Benzaquen's argument is wrong!

    ReplyDelete
  58. so Fabian won that argument hands dow then!

    ReplyDelete
  59. No we agree that Fabian's argument is wrong. benzaquen's argument is subtler. he is saying to Fabian that, to get to the place he, Fabian wants to get to, public ownership is not needed.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Anonymous at 22:52

    Subtle no just plain wrong!

    ReplyDelete
  61. Subtle no just plain wrong! Retaining ownership and management at least permits decisions to be majorly influenced. Who would invest in a business where employment levels are regulated irrespective of investment/profits. Its sheer madness!

    ReplyDelete
  62. Precisely what Benzaquen was saying.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Anonymous at 23:00

    That is NOT what you have written.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Robert I'm rather curious to find out the name of this mysterious GSD supporter who will be offering himself as a candidate for the GSLP.
    It appears Bryan Zammitt will be revealing His name at 00.00Hrs on Gibraltar Politics!!
    Do you know anything about this???????

    ReplyDelete
  65. No wonder Picardo did not reply. No one should be forced to respond to such chicken shit not even Fabian.

    ReplyDelete
  66. I am going to bed. Just when I thought all the comedians had been mentioned some one comes up with Bryan Zammit GRRRROOOOAAANNNN!

    ReplyDelete
  67. RV,

    As you know I truly ejoy your subjects, however I think its about time that you furnish us with a varied selection of other topics as we near the Elections. I would suggest far greater social issues affecting the ordinary man in the street. I appreciate that this is your blog and you're entitled to write whatever you feel like, but you must be aware that presently you have a substantial following that wants more.

    To quote St Paul at 1 Corinthians 3:2...
    "I gave you milk to drink, not solid food; for you were not yet able to receive it..."

    I think we are ready now, you have already fed us plenty on reforms, I think we are now ready to receive other more fleshy stuff prior to election time.

    Bring them on...

    ReplyDelete
  68. I have just turned on my computer after enjoying Downton Abbey on ITV and find that there has been a greater carnage on Llanito world than on the sceen depiction of the battle of the Somme. On LW all the local egomaniacs have come a cropper Rafael, Luis Momtegriffo, Jaimito, Benzaquen, Bryan. Robert you should warn us about these things.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Anon Benzaquen and Luis Montegriffo are not comedians. These are serious players. Your attempts to discredit the future of the GSD will not work. After the next election Joe Holliday will be CM and Luis/Rafael will be groomed to take us to the next level.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Ahu el Pepe grooming Luis y Rafael. Que mal esta la cosa.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Thank goodness that Mr. Bezaquen does not read LW. Any normal person would be shattered to find that his sense of self worth is not shared by many. It is true though that many people in gibraltar have grotesquely inflated opinions of themselves it's not just Rafeal, Bryan is another one. Sorry Bryan but it has to be said. What I do not understand is how Jaimito is put in the same bag. He is after all one of our principal generators of wealth and Fabian's boss so not comical at all.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Disciple X

    Despite referring to democratic reforms, I thought I had widened the debate in this pice but maybe not. I will heed your wish and see whether i can meet it.

    ReplyDelete
  73. I hope we have a hung parliament with lots of new faces so that we can see who among Benzaquen, Luis, Jaimito, Brayan and Rafael are the best orators!

    ReplyDelete
  74. Anon 22:02

    Luis performed "brilliantly" in a debate on gbc earlier this year. LOL!!

    Are you for real???

    Wasn't that the same Luis Montegriffo who stated LIVE on GBC that "not too much power should be given to our people"????

    I guess someone who supports autocracy would deem such a performance as "brilliant", not me though :)

    Ps - Who is this Rafael? I have never seen or read any of his opinion columns.


    K

    ReplyDelete
  75. RV/25th@23:53

    Robert

    I do not know what Disciple X would consider a 'fleshy subject'. As far as I am concerned there is only one subject with any flesh:-

    It's the economy, stupid.

    ReplyDelete
  76. I have no doubt that this blog is followed by all parties,it's a good indicator for the parties to gauge the prospective candidates by the blog users.Aqui no tienen pelo en la lengua!
    Next: Johnny Jones.
    Let give gentle giant Rafael a break.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Anon at 20.17 so what can we gauge so far? let's sum up. Firstly, Robert will not vote for Rafael even if Rafael does not yet have a public profile. Secondly, Robert adores Danny Feetham (trouble is Danny is not standing for election). Thirdly, Robert is asking us to give Fabian a chance even if, fourthly, he accepts Caruana has done good work.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Anon at 20.17, Johnny Jones? Isn't he the father in law of Benjy Marrache?

    El MOntarik

    ReplyDelete
  79. Anonymous at 20:57

    And?

    You castigate me for having an individualistic view that is based on valid argument? If so have the decency to argue against my view ...

    ReplyDelete
  80. I castigate you for not honouring the prudent principle that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I castigate you for condemning a man without hearing him out first. I castigate you for supporting Fabian and all the while sweeping aside las barbaridades being blurted out week in week out in the New People by Fabian's executive chairman.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Anonymous at 21:00

    QED ... you castigate me for having an individual opinion based on substantive argument. That is the problem with the GSD and why it will lose the forthcoming election unless it changes at the last minute. It has failed to deliver what it promised because of its holier than thou attitude exemplified by your comment.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Once again you skirt the issue and end up in the via Tarifa. Your individual opinion is based on a hunch, not argument. Unless you have a crystal ball there is no way on earth you can know whether Picardo can deliver with maniacs such as Perez running the party committee. On the other hand you've got Caruana who's delivered - late but delivered. Logical enough for you?

    ReplyDelete
  83. "Holier than thou" you say? is calling Rajoy a fascist and falangist a way of running Gibraltar's foreign policy, for heaven's sake! Read the New People, man!

    ReplyDelete
  84. Anonymous at 21:08

    NOPE, you miss the point of all my arguments. I shall make it simple for you. Like that you may understand:

    1. I have not supported any individual.
    2. I have discussed and argued issues.
    3. It is not about Caruana and Picardo.
    4. It is about policies.
    5. It is about democracy not autocracy.
    6. It is about government not one person.
    7. On past performance, I will refer you to waht all risk warnings in financial instruments have "PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE"
    8. The GSD have not been infallible ... time will tell.
    9. It is not me who decides it is the electorate ... so are you throwing in the towel on behalf of the GSD?
    10. If you are throwing in the towel is it because you know the results of the 7 Days telephone poll of today that it will not publish? I know the result :). It is not good for the GSD!
    11. Perez .. he has little say ... you are grasping at straws.

    Logical enough for you? If not you simply have faith and do not want to see argument or reality.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Anonymous at 21:11

    Man! its you Louis again ... give me a break! Use arguments that might help the GSd win the election ... las teienen cruda ... even potential candidates are having second thoughts! Eso no te dice nada?

    ReplyDelete
  86. Let me answer you point by point

    1. You say you do not support any individual but whatever Picardo comes up with has your blessing. Venga ya. de quien te estas cachondeando.

    2. You THINK you have discussed issues. For the most part it is pure speculation. Conjecture - as in who the hell knows whether Fabian can deliver but you decide to place a bet on him doing so.

    3. Not about Caruana and Picardo? In your piece you say otherwise, sunshine (as in the GSD government is all about Caruana).

    4. Agreed that it's all about policies. But, in your case, it's also about sucking up to the guys who, you think, will win the next election. In other words, self interest. Otro pansista.

    5. Past performance may not be an indicator of future performance but, one thing is for sure, once bitten twice shy.

    6. perez has little say. Que dices! He;s the party chairman for heaven's sake, Bossano's brother in arms and not a whippersnapper like Picardo.

    As for the 7 Days poll, please enlighten us. You want to discuss last election's GBC exit poll and the integrity of some polls here?

    ReplyDelete
  87. OH so throwing shit at the forthcoming PP government by the GSLP chairman is funny is it? And by the way I am not "power to the people" Louis!

    ReplyDelete
  88. Thank you for raising awareness about point 10 Robert. It wasn't too long ago a few people were lambasting the Vox for supposedly withholding “unfavourable” poll results. When all of a sudden, lo and behold, they DID publish the poll results and it showed the GSLP in front yet again, much to the chagrin of those same detractors who then went on to question the Vox’s polling methods.

    I wonder if those same people will be just as quick to badger the 7 Days? Unlikely : )

    ReplyDelete
  89. Anonymous at 21:28

    My retorts:

    1. Could it be that I wrote and publicised the same views here and in the CIR press releases before ... no not Fabian ... the GSLP/Liberals? Check back on this blog and verify.

    2. Not os ... please support your statement with my endorsement of Picardo as opposed to policies announced by the GSLP/Liberals that have not been previously (before announcement by that party) argued by me in this blog. So I do not think ... history proves it.

    3. Yes absolutely my sweetie ... the GSD is about Caruana he has made it that ... one of my main criticisms in the democratic deficit argument.

    4. No ... I have not changed since I started writing this blog in December 2009. At that time everyone discarded the GSLP/Liberals ... a look back through this blog disproves your assertion.

    5. That is a reactionary point of view that the electorate may not share and by your point 4 you concede that it likely does not share.

    6. he will not be in Parliament. The Parliamentary party rules usually except n the case of the GSD ...

    well ask your own party about the 7 Days poll ... you really have to do better ... no wonder the GSD is where it is if that is all the arguments that you can muster :)

    ReplyDelete
  90. Anon 21:31 it is not "power to the people" Luis. It is DON'T give too much Power to the people Luis.

    That is all.

    K

    ReplyDelete
  91. Otra vez por la via Tarifa. You want an example, I'll give you one. Back in July when you realised you'd get a drubbing at the polls, the gloss you put on your withdrawal was some crap about both parties having agreed to move forward on parliamentary reform. Lo and behold Caruana proposes reforms. Picardo proposes nothing. When the going gets too hot to handle he comes up with a formulaic investigatory commission (the irony is that Picardo actually professes to admire Yes Minister in his facebook page!!. Which do you support? No, not the guy with concrete proposals.

    As for Perez, El que corta el bacalao en el GSLP es Bossano and you know it. He's got the block vote, not Fabian. When have you seen Bossano rap Perez in the knuckles for undermining Picardo. Was it at the time Fabian was trying hard to get things on track with Unite and Perez was busy pulling the other way calling Charlie everything under the sun?

    ReplyDelete
  92. El anon este tiene el mismo style que el 7 days y con los mismos argumentos. Pepe's foot soldiers.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Anonymous at 21:50

    La via de Tarifa or do you mean the road to Andorra? :)

    You do not answer a single one of my retorts .. . i do not believe that it is me who is on the wrong road :) Some self-examination may help you on this one :)

    Me a drubbing in the polls? I have never been the subject of a poll. Are you on the right road?

    I have argued the issue of reforms and the GSLP/Liberal position on that in the blog. I may be right I may be wrong but I believe that I am right :)

    Caruana's reforms are useless ... 95% are within his power without legislation and he has not delivered now or in 16 years before :)

    You know more than me about quien corta el bacalao en el GSLP ... Are you a member with the inside track? :)

    Gosh, you really are on the back foot :) keep it coming you are doing the GSD a lot of favours :)

    ... why are you posting anonymously?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Without being hyperbolic, Robert has in my estimation achieved what he set out to achieve in that he has singlehandedly, via this very blog, pushed electoral reform and democratic accountability to the very forefront of the electorate's awareness.

    The GSD’s comprehensive failings in respect of the same have been consequentially exposed, and the Opposition have been given a stiff kick in the backside and have seemingly gotten their act together, and more importantly, they have committed to the promises that matter in the eyes of the electorate BEFORE the GSD deigned it appropriate to pull their socks up.

    He simply doesn’t need to run, nor should he be expected to shoulder the hefty financial burden that goes hand in hand with such a commitment for no reason. He already took a financial hit by sticking by his convictions in respect of his role in the FSC and the continued running of this blog.

    The Angry Friar

    ReplyDelete
  95. Si Rafael da la cara! No te econda!

    ReplyDelete
  96. Oh dear, como esta el patio hoy!

    The tantrums are getting noisier and much more aggressive. Only today did cousin Isabella have a post removed on Facebook after she commented that Mr Jones was no loss to the GSD, as she was sure the party had lost his family's votes already after... she then went on to mention his son in law and his pending case with the courts.
    Needless to say, she was quickly reminded by the more respectable members of the group that a man who had been an upstanding member of the community for all of his life didn't just stop being one because his son-in-law was alleged to have been involved in criminal activity, especially as, nowadays apparently, we are all innocent until proven guilty.
    The offending post and comments in reply, were quickly removed by the vigilant admin.

    A pity because perhaps they should have been kept there and she could have been the lucky recipient of a lawyer's letter just like the other lucky chap in another group, who has received such a letter on behalf on a Government Minister for his over the top personal comment of this minister.

    The moral of the story? Those with the GSD can lash out regardless, those against have to keep quiet and wait to lash out on polling day instead!

    ReplyDelete
  97. RV@21:18

    Robert if I may take you up on Point 7:-

    "On past performance, I will refer you to waht all risk warnings in financial instruments have "PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE"

    When it comes to the economy it could have applied to the past performance and future performance promised and fulfilled by the GSD after the 2003 and 2007 elections.

    The GSLP/Libs is the risk. Unless they have a "secret plan".

    Bill Clinton 1992: It's the economy, stupid.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Caruana's reforms are useless? Isn't that what Picardo said in his press release? Are you two coordinating what you say?

    What, pray is useless. More meetings? More question times? Appointment of backbenchers?

    Why am I posting anonymously? Ask Jaimito.

    ReplyDelete
  99. viva la democracia................as long as it's the GSD way,anon 21.10,ask yourself why people who voted the GSD are now not afraid to say they will vote gslp.When the gslp win the elections,there will less bloggers using the anonymous profile.True freedom of speech will be restored.
    Self determination? what for ? when under the gsd we are becoming more and more state controlled.
    Venga wake up! It all very well if you belong to the club.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Anonymous at 22:19

    As I argue in my blog above the foundations of the economy were laid by the GSLP pre-1996 administration. Please provide 1 GSD economic innovation please ...

    Anonymous at 22:20

    La verdad tiene un camoino ... or ... greta minds think alike. First that I hear Fabian has said the same ... I said some weeks ago in a blog, so who is following who?

    ReplyDelete
  101. One GSD economic innovation? How about lowering taxes every year? How about hetting rid of Lichtenstein sink funds?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Anonymous at 22:27

    Lowering taxes is due to economic success not vice versa

    Liechtenstein sink funds have nothing to do with economics ... if they existed at all because no one was prosecuted for them ... WHY?

    ReplyDelete
  103. The fiscal structure of an economy not an innovation? Go back to Cafe Rojo, Robert.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Anonymous at 22:32

    Yes ... i have said so in the blog above ... it is not a GSD innovation ... it has been so since the mid 1960s ...

    ReplyDelete
  105. Did lichtenstein sink funds exist? Anyone know Juan how to contact the Amigos de Gibraltar?

    ReplyDelete
  106. Since the mid-1960's but not the Bossano years, and never as systematic as know. remember how Sir Joshua brought down taxes only in election years?

    ReplyDelete
  107. Anonymous at 22:34


    Where are the criminal convictions? If there are none, why? To what eefect have the GSD used this without any convictions?

    Anonymous at 22:35

    You forget Qualifying Company initiatives? You forget all the tax laws to attract HNWI's now known as Cat 2s? You forget other tax laws to attract appropriate employees with special skills? All were GSLP innovations ...

    You have a distorted view of history ... keep it coming yo are doing really well for the GSD!

    ReplyDelete
  108. RV@22:19

    Robert

    Do you call being the highest taxed country in Europe the ideal foundations of our economy?

    If you want just one example of the GSD's economic innovations take a look inside any Gibraltarian's pocket. If anybody thinks that it is the private sector that has created this wealth it still needed the varied environment, including fiscal, in order to create it.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Anonymous at 22:47

    The end not the means ... that is not economics that is government revenues resultant from economic activity ...

    ReplyDelete
  110. Ahu con que mala leche van Pepito Holliday's boys. Their target is not the GSLP but one of their own!

    ReplyDelete
  111. Robert, just read your blog. What a crock of shite! Well maybe you have a point on the election date. Que te pasa man, esta mas vicioso que nunca.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Anonymous at 22:58

    I take your lack of substantive argument as a compliment :)

    ReplyDelete
  113. Good news to see Johny Jones cross the floor...the GSD have had it now well and truly if someone like Mr Jones has thrown in the Caruana towel.I suppose that the usual smear campaign that the GSD use against defectors will be used against Mr Jones.He has shown that he has guts so I would tell the GSD cronies not to waste their energy on this one!!!

    ReplyDelete
  114. El Rafael por ta de forma parte del line up has become el assassino. Is that what we want for Gib? People who will do anything and everything to get into power? Rafael why don't you realise once and for all you are a dispensable political tool doing someone else's dirty work but not even the people in your party have any regard for you. Hasta el power to the people has a better chance of getting elected than you. You are a liability.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Why are non of the three parties mentioning possible woman candidates

    equality?

    ReplyDelete
  116. QUE PESHA!

    I'm getting the popcorn ready for the elections. Lo curioso para ti Robert will be como seguira el blog este post-elections?

    Its all about to change folks....

    p.s. De adonde salio Johnny Jones? Si nadie le tragaba en Bayside???!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  117. Can anyone tell me who is Rafael & Co's landlord? Is it Pepito H?

    ReplyDelete
  118. I suppose that the fact that he was a tough cookie in Bayside helped straighten many of us out.Let us see him do the same to the GSD in opposition soon.It really is a case of Fabian looking to surround himself with Ministers who are mature no-nonsense people,many of whom are older than Fabian and Peter C looking to surround himself by young controllable characters like Damon,Isabel, Selwyn etc.
    One thing is for sure Fabians lineup is much much stronger than Peters and much more experienced so the electorate will have no problem choosing I am sure.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Johnny J a "tough cookie" te quedas corto pisha ! I doubt anyone who went to Bayside would even consider voting for him. Yep loads of experience, organising the ski trip ....

    ReplyDelete
  120. If Clive Beltran was voted in I cannot see why Johny J would also get in...this is not a popularity contest or Peter C would never have got elected in the first place but look lets beg to differ on this one and let the exasperated electorate decide on the day,I am glad that at the very least you think Johny J is a good organiser (re Ski Trip!) thats a better beginning than many of the "Yes Chief Minister" Ministers we have had over the past 15 years!!!

    ReplyDelete
  121. RV

    Afooo...speechless...knives are out and the sharpening taking place...Joder, (excuse my french)the battle lines are beng marked out. Interesting , very interesting :)

    ReplyDelete
  122. Will the 7 Days publish the results of the phone poll?

    ReplyDelete
  123. Como a lo mejor hubiese dicho Sir Joshua: Quien es ese Jones? The problem with this influx into local politics is that the whole rationale for people who want to be elected is that they should make themselves and their views known. It seems that there are so many people counting on getting in on the back of our pathetic bliock voting system that they do not even do the electorate the courtesy of acknowleding them.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Vamo Clive Beltran y Johnny J, dos patas para un banco. If this is the best Gibraltar can aspire to "apaga y vamonos".

    Can't we get some proper candidates worth voting for? The 1 (or 2) + 9 block voting needs to stop. People need to vote for candidates worth voting for not as part of the package or "so the other guys don't get in".

    We need more businessman, experianced managers, economists & accountants and less lawyers, ex teachers, ex priests, ex union.

    ReplyDelete
  125. I think some of the potential candidates on either side of the political divide have a lot to offer. In particular Isobel, Selwyn, Norbert, Marilou are all names that I believe would add worth to any party.

    I hope that every potential candidate will be given an opportunity to make their views known to the electorate as a whole in due course.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Anon @ 15.28 All the people who you mention and the many others who are crawling out of the wood work to join politics have the opportunity to speak for themselves. The problem is that most of them are unwilling so much as to fart without their respective leaders' permission. On the other hand they would not be able to climb on the block vote gravy train without cow towing to their leaders so I am sorry to say that the lack of canvassing from the people who you mention and others shows that there are few if any people of qauality in the party line ups. SHAME ON THEM!

    ReplyDelete
  127. I agree with Anon at 13.25 - we do need candidates with experience in running businesses, mature people from all walks of life who have dealt with employees and with problems fairly and with leadership. I also would like to know if some prominent businessmen who have stradled one administration after another, simply changing their allegiance and becoming more 'papista que el papa' supporting the next administration have already started making overtures to Mr. Picardo and co.....? That would really be sounding the death knoll for the GSD!

    ReplyDelete
  128. I don't know about other parties, but the GSLP executive is still to meet to select the line-up for the next elections. Perhaps this is why they aren't out there canvassing for votes, as however welcome the support may be, their addition to the GSLP's slate is not yet certain.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Gibraltar politics needs to be revitalised by people in their prime who have energy, enthusiasm and ability, a track record in whatever field they are from. I agree that candidates should be drawn from a variety of backgrounds. A balanced line up is what is required. Although no line ups have yet been announced, how could they be without an election date, the prospective GSD candidates do fit the bill better than what we're hearing from the GSLP. Isobel, Selwyn, Luis, Damon and others, all in their prime and capable of taking Gib forward with new ideas while underpinned by the experience of PC and JH.
    FP seems to be forming a gerontochracy. Many of these propective candidates should remain in retirement, stepping aside gracefully for the next generation, Joe Bossano should do so also.

    I'm sure these younger candidates find it flattering to be described so, but in fact they are of an age similar to Cameron, Obama and Sarkozy, we don't need any Berlusconis.

    ReplyDelete
  130. I agree that we need people in their prime but intelligence, wisdom and honesty should be paramount. I do not want to name any names but some of the youuthful people who may be standing for election if they let them do not come across as very bright. True the same applies to some of the old codgers being mentioned! Painful truth is that this year's batch of politicians is in the main a pretty sorry shower. Seems to me that too may are attarced by the MP's salaries.

    ReplyDelete
  131. The polls seem to suggest that the electorate agrees that Gibraltar politics needs to be revitalised by the proposals the GSLP have thus far made as opposed to the next batch of faces in boxes Caruana is going to trot on display for the electorate in the manifesto this time around. :)


    A team orientated government drawing from the wealth of experience of some of the potential names on offer in the GSLP line-up is just the icing on the cake.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Anon at 19.48, please don't flatter the GSLP "gerontocracy" as you call by comparing them to Berlusconi who, as we know, is one of the most successful businessmen Italy has ever produced.

    ReplyDelete
  133. I suppose Luis has a track record selling apartments. Damon and Selwyn have a track record? They are very junior lawyers. Isobel is gutsy I will give you that. By others I presume you mean Rafael. Well I do agree that Rafael is cleverer than a sack full of monkeys and is the obvious man to challenge Picardo during the next four years.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Welcome to the Rafael bashing society round 3 guys!

    ReplyDelete
  135. Damon was a founder member of the GNP with Joe Garcia. Granted he has been out of politics for a while but this must be better than having Joe's track record of election defeats. How about a law that only allows people to lose two elections so you can't get in by default.

    Selwyn works in the private sector for a law firm, but not I believe as a lawyer and he has frequently spoken out on environmental issues.

    Isobel's work in the community and journalistic past surely makes her the strongest candidate yet suggested by either party and I'd like there to be more women in both line ups.

    OK, I may have overstated the case for Luis but he is still to my mind preferrable to the likes of Jones, Cortes, Borge and Mascarenas. Is this the GSLPs idea for getting in touch with the youth?

    ReplyDelete
  136. Anon @ 21.43 - so which one of those 3 is a match for FP in a post PC world, do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  137. It seems the GSD fanatic’s new tactic of choice now that the party on a whole is nearly kaput is to try and belittle any potential candidates the GSLP might present before they’ve even been officially announced and decided upon! This is perhaps why certain contributors have been quieter than usual on the Facebook politics group, it’s easier for a coward to accomplish such a task under the cloak of anonymity.

    I’m certain that none of the candidates you mentioned have made any reference to wanting to get in touch with the youth, no, I imagine that they instead wish to bring their experience to the table so that they may contribute to the party and Gibraltar as a whole. Whereas the GSLP’s stance has always been to get in touch with the youth and involve them in some capacity, this is an election ploy the GSD have only recently decided to adopt in their desperate mad rush for votes now that things seem at their bleakest.

    For the record, I don’t think it’s fair that others make disparaging comments Rafael and some of the other candidates under the cloak of anonymity either.

    ReplyDelete
  138. I would like to know in what sphere of life anon at 21.43 has found success. His criticism of Joe Garcia, a man who has been elected to parliament several times and done a great job in getting the British Liberal party to support Gibraltar marks anon @ 21.43 as an ungenerous individual. Garcia's track record is in fact exemplary.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Anon@ 21.58, the reason Garcia is still around is because he jumped into bed with Bossano - and because Bossano has not let him loose yet. This is common ground, is it not?

    ReplyDelete
  140. Most of the GSD "younsters" are in fact not that young. Admittely they are all still come across as quite immature.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Anonymous at 22:01

    I think your comment is most ungenerous to someone who has dedicated himself so much to defend Gibraltar's corner.

    ReplyDelete
  142. With Rajoy poised to take over the reins of the Spanish Administration, Rafael Benzaquen must, by popular acclaim, be entrusted with the administration of our Gibraltar, ably assisted by his deputy Luis 'power to the people' Montegriffo.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Anon at 21.56 the articles that appear in the 7 days week in week out are also anonymous. Who do you think has a hand there?

    ReplyDelete
  144. Pepeito, Rafael, Momtegriffo and Benzaquen is my dream team.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Actually I'm not a 'fanatic' of any party. It's just that I'd like a choice and FP certainly needs to refresh his line up. I'm tired of having the same choices and having to reject them time after time and I'm just not convinced by the candidates who are being toutedfor the GSLP line up. It does not strike me as anything new or fresh. You don't need to be seventy to be experienced, as FP himself would no doubt remind us. Will these people even be able to stay awake during a session of parliament?

    ReplyDelete
  146. Anon 21.43 the only people who are a match of Picardo are either out of the house of assembly today (and either not returning or will not be elected) or will leave the house at this election if Robert is right.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Anon 22:06

    The same fool who’s probably retrospectively realised that their decision to embark on a negative “gutter” campaign was quite possibly the worst political decision they ever made?

    ReplyDelete
  148. Yeeeessssss anon at 22.07 orgasmic line up!

    ReplyDelete
  149. My dream is Perez in foreign affairs and Bossanno as election strategist.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Anon @ 22.09, you mean Danny Feetham? If I remember correctly FP played a better hand when they were both GSLP members.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Joe Garcia has made a livelihood out of losing elections. OK, he's not finished last because there have been even worse candidates presented and the block vote has saved him but do me a favour, it's quite a feat of spin to call that many loses as an exemplary track record.

    In any other sector he'd have been sacked for such unashamed failure, in any other country his party would have 'asked' him to step down.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Well if the rumours are true JH will be taking over from PC and with his experience he will be more than a match for a young inexperienced, prone to making errors and lacking judgment FP. Joe Holiday will be more than a match for the young pretender.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Tut tut anon 22.13 FP is a liberal defector. Get it right. He was outmanoeuvred by a liberal defector.

    ReplyDelete
  154. How about some candidates who might be in it to serve the community and not themselves. Only Isobel and Marilou fit into this bracket. I woudn't give tuppence for the rest.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Everyone

    Why are you all so obsessed with persons and not issues and policies?

    ReplyDelete
  156. Where are those individuals with political pedigree? Please someone, bring them out!

    ReplyDelete
  157. I agree anon@22.14 the answer to our prayers is Pepito. He has the presence, charisma, charm, eloquence and larger than life presence. FP and Rajoy watch out! Gibraltar's secret weapon is about to be unveiled.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Robert, people are important you know. The electorate engages with people not policies. The two are of equal significance and its the people who shape the policy.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Agreed Robert.

    My assumption is the GSD acknowledge they have been “beaten “by the GSLP in terms of the proposed reforms, etc. The most recent polls indicate that this would seem to be the case.

    Attempts at character assassination are seemingly all they have left.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Anon @ 22.20 - are you including FP in your question? Has FP ever won an election or lived a life which is not under the wing of jaimito or Bossano.

    ReplyDelete
  161. Epera Pepito holliday becomes leader of the GSD with Luis, Damian, Rafael or Selwyn as his deputy and the liberals take over the opposition. The meek will inherit the earth! Vote PDP.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Have read all your comments and it all really boils down to DEMOCRACY, who has more of a chance of running Gibraltar as a democracy and not be allowed by his fellow ministers to make ALL the decisions himself? Is it Fabian with a group of no-nonsense individuals who have already made thieir mark in life and will not be bullied about or they will tell Fabian where to get off or is it Peter C with a group of lovely young and impressionable individuals? We aLL know that none of these potential candidates would stand up to Peter C whilst all of the potential GSLP candidiates could, if bullied, tell fabian where to get off...the answer therfore is that we have more of a chance of letting Democracy rule under Fabian than under Peter C,sorry to whoever doesn't want to hear this but that is the truth.

    ReplyDelete
  163. There are many very experience business professional and other skilled women in Gibraltar with more guts than many present and past Minister who would not say AMEN to their so called master IE PC and fight 100 % for the rights of the people of Gibraltar. Where are they, they are a must to any political party wanting to win any election.

    equality

    ReplyDelete
  164. Perhaps Montiel should take the party forward.............to the X factor.
    what has he done in the last four years?
    sweet cups of coffee!

    ReplyDelete
  165. Anon@22.24 this is no laughing matter if mr holliday succeeds mr caruana I will not vote GSD. That would be a ruin for our Rock.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Well maybe motile hasn't been allowed to do anything!

    ReplyDelete
  167. I meant montiel!

    ReplyDelete
  168. Anon 22.50 don't worry when JH suceeds PC it will be short lived like Canepa when he took over from el Sir.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Yes but in six months you can do real damage .......

    ReplyDelete
  170. Well he has a number of decent businessmen to help him make a success of it .....

    ReplyDelete
  171. Never fear our Rafael is here.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Yep! and at the end kill the party

    ReplyDelete
  173. Lets see how long FP remains at the helm if he loses the election, how long until the party backs the candidate they should have backed this time round ....

    ReplyDelete
  174. I cannot see Peter C handing over to anybody unless the inevitable happens, and, as the whole of Gibraltar believes (but some are too afraid to say)the GSD loose the forthcoming election.Then he may call it a day but otherwise he will stick it out until he gets his knighthood and beyond because he seems to think that he is a replica of the late Sir Joshua but he is nowhere near by many miles.
    JH standing for Chief Minister..is this a joke or is it a serious comment?.

    ReplyDelete
  175. No JH would not stand on his own. PC would stand down and let JH take over for the last years of the term, and he would in turn prepare Rafael, Luis, Damian or one of the others as his successor. That person would then fight the next election in four years time. A sort of interim CM just for a couple of years to steady the ship with his safe pair of hands. Word is it's all agreed.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Steady the ship?.......like the Fedra!

    ReplyDelete
  177. Glad the GSD is not getting in because between the Andorra mutterings and the alleged quick exit of PC the scenario is suspect..sorry but its classical llanito paranoia!The only real successor PC could prepare in opposition would be Danny Feetham , ie GSD loose election , PC stays for first year as leader of opposition then hands over to Danny F who would then prepare the fightback as leader of the GSD for the 2015 election..that scenario I have heard about before.

    ReplyDelete
  178. Ahu la cosa esta mal pa lo social democrata

    ReplyDelete
  179. Over lunch I was reminded of one factor, which I heve not taken into consideration (because it had simply escaped me) that may militate to the GSD still being in front at the General Elelction. That factor is that Opinion Polls will not include the views of so many voters who are resident in Spain but register to vote with Gibraltar adresses. The leaglity of this is doubtful but that it is known to happen is widespread. The effect on results of these voters is therefore unknown ... COMMENTS PLEASE?

    ReplyDelete
  180. Hello Chaps,
    Look Robert - small point - but us chaps in Soto built the old Rock OK? So we bally well should get a vote. By post of course. We’re hardly going to queue to get in are we? Not since the old Guardia started the moterped queues at any rate – the old Merc-to-Moped Fo Cona flim flam no longer works does it? No! Despite Peter’s best efforts with the tri-lateral to get the queue down for us Soto types its hardly any easier to commute from home is it? No!
    Off to Ke. Catch you later?

    ReplyDelete
  181. Robert

    Why should you doubt the legal right of a Gibraltarian living in Spain to vote. Many expats have the right to vote in their country of origin.

    ReplyDelete
  182. The Opinion polls were in the same situation during the last elections and they reflected (slightly more or less) the eventual result.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Anonymous at 16:42

    1. I have not referred to Gibraltarians but the law applies to them equally.

    2. Because the law says so tyhey cannot

    3. Many expats have rights to vote in their country of origin can s do so because the law permits it.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Any views on the parliamentary debate this afternoon? Incredible performance by Caruana no?

    ReplyDelete
  185. That is the law; you have to live in Gib to be eligible to vote.

    Seems unfair that retired Gibraltarians and ex-pats living in Spain are voting but if you are a Gibraltarian living in UK, for example,you cannot.

    So,a fairer system would be that either all residents and Gibraltarians, regardless of where they are living, are allowed to vote, or only residents have this right. If the latter, then let us not find loopholes to break the law and vote!

    ReplyDelete
  186. An Omnibus says:

    Good point Robert. I still maintain that the GSD will scrape through for another four years. The undecideds will play safe and vote negatively a la "better the devil you know", and those living in the colonies (Soto/Alcaidesa) will give them the edge.

    ReplyDelete
  187. Omnibus, I would say that this is clearly not the case if the polls are anything to go by. Last time there was a greater proportion of the public as reflected in the polls who voted for the GSD in comparison to those reflected in the polls this time around.

    Their block vote in Soto/Alcaidesa may have remained the same, however, their local support has diminished significantly. More importantly the postal votes from the UK will actually be included in the final tally this time around (all being well).

    It's important to remember that the GSD BARELY clung onto power in the last election. Who's to say how those postal votes would have tipped the balance? Impossible to say obviously...

    ReplyDelete
  188. Anon 17.31 Caruana was right in some og the things he said but he increasingly comes across as an over aggressive bully. He also seemed to begrudge the fact that the leader of the Opp brought 2 motions to honour the police officer in the port fire and an MP. It has to be him or no one else. Power has gone to his head. I for one will not fall for the "best of what we have tactic". I just cannot vote for someone who insists on being treated like royalty.

    ReplyDelete
  189. Anon 23.50 Caruana will prepare no one. Se cargo a Montegriffo, a Keith y me dicen ahora que hasta Feetham tiene los huevos haltos. Everybody that can possibly take over from him ends up fed up. El tio es un dictador.

    ReplyDelete
  190. Anon@18:58

    Which "polls" are you referring to?

    As far as I know the only one recent poll that has been published was carried out by Vox.gi.

    ReplyDelete
  191. Speaking of which, looking forward to the results of that 7 Days poll Robert alluded to earlier! :)

    ReplyDelete
  192. Perhap PC should have sold half of Gib to the american,ni election ni na!.....remember The Gibraltar Affair on you tube.I wonder what Gordon really told the Chief?

    ReplyDelete
  193. Yes FP seems to be grouping his favoured individuals around him - much older, experienced characters. People he may hope will help hold his hand after JB finally retires. But are these really grassroots GSLP supporters or just those attracted to a relatively easy sweep into power, security of a nice pay packet in the autumn of their lives? Individuals who will risk very little by standing against the might of PC! Well what about the younger potential candidates where are the Luis's, Bossinos and Ellul Hammonds of the GSLP? FP will be the youngest of the GSLP candidates and will lead in his late 30's! Theres Costa for the Liberals and there was Balban in 2007 there doesnt seem to be many more.. The later is well known and popular within the Party but nothing has Officially been heard as to his intentions although there is word that he may put his name down to compete for the few remaining seats. There is also a need to include a female candidate and still remains a mystery. Will Chellaram have a second bite of the cherry or will there be any other female candidates in the pipeline? Guerrero perhaps? It will be a tough one for the party to choose, sometimes too much choice us not such a good thing!

    ReplyDelete
  194. Por favor. El power to the people is a waste of space. El Bossino cannot possibly compare to either costa, Licudi or Picardo. You wheel someone out from nowhere and they will win the election? Isobel isnt even liked by her own party. The GSD have a serious candidate problem on their hands. Picardo, Bossano, Garcia, Licudi, costa. These five young but very experienced individuals and Caruana aside you want to compare them to holliday, Luis, Bossino and Isobel. Please you are not being serious. Then look at the other likely candidates. The Cortes brothers are dedicated and respected people. dr Borge is a very respected doctor with a likely following and jones was a respected teacher. Vinet you cannot get an appointment with. The others look washed out. Feet ham, who is widely acknowledged as having done a decent job is not standing. You are delusional.

    ReplyDelete
  195. Mr. Vasquez, Will the CM want to know the result of the Spanish elections before calling his?

    ReplyDelete
  196. Bossano is 72! I suppose young if he wants to retire at 92 lol! But your point is well made. The alliance have young professional who have cut their political teeth for some years combined with mature and well known members of the community who are contributors to society. Classic middle Gibraltar. A relatively unknown lawyer and an estate agent with an issue in relation to democracy are no match. Holiday is a very unpopular minister. Isobel I like but it the rest of it is very ifi.

    ReplyDelete
  197. Anonymous at 22:36

    The only logic for waiting for the result of the Spanish election is to see if the PP gets in. The likelihood of this not happening is negligible that I cannot see that it should be a consideration in deciding the date of our own election. If it is a consideration it can only be because the CM believes that the electorate consider that relations with Spain will be better if the current CM is re-elected. I believe this thinking is flawed for the following reasons:

    1. It means that the GSD are soft on Spain, which is not an attractive attribute for Gibraltar's electorate. This could be used by the opposing parties in debate against electing the GSD.
    2. I do not believe who is in power in Gibraltar determines what any government in Spain's policy will be toward Gibraltar. The PP will have its policy and the PSOE its irrespective of who is CM in Gibraltar.
    3. The PSOE policy of appeasement seems to be frozen at present. Whar more proof do you need of point 2 above?

    ReplyDelete
  198. Do you really see Bossino, Luis, Isobel, Holliday, Vinet, del agua, beltran, montiel standing up to Caruana? The line up the GSD supporters want to shove down our throats will only lead to more centralised power in the hands of Caruana.

    ReplyDelete