November Election? Some Current Considerations.

According to a story in Panorama the Chief Minister has indicated, on a Spanish Radio programme, that the election will be held before Christmas. Leaving aside the bizarreness of the Chief Minister having ignored his own constituency in Gibraltar by making this statement in Spain, this announcement will agitate more and more speculation. Speculation about who may be leaving politics, who may be standing for election, what pre-election coalitions might be formed and who might win the election. 

What is extraordinary about the whole process is that, weeks before a General Election, the electorate  do not know yet who many of the candidates will be. It just seems to me to be an oddity that political parties should consider that retaining this mystery is in any way an advantage. To me it is further proof of the deficiency in party organisations. These deficiencies contribute to reducing the effectiveness of democracy in Gibraltar. It is also another factor that further helps to propagate the belief that a General Election is an election of a Chief Minister and a Leader of the Opposition. Thus rendering the election presidential in style rather than what it should be, an election for individual representatives to Parliament. It is from amongst those elected that a Chief Minister and Government is formed. 10 votes essentially become 1 vote. 

The added reason for this effect that I term the "presidential effect" is that the combined lack of constituencies/wards and each voter having 10 votes means that no individual actually elects a single identifiable MP who can or will be his/her personal representative in Parliament. This is an added aspect of the existing system that contributes to the "democratic deficit". It is a further aspect of the present electoral system that needs to be looked at. Personal representation in Parliament needs to be improved. How? I am not presently sure, but solutions must exist. Resolving this issue will also reduce reliance on the Chief Minister to resolve individual problems. This will reduce the opportunity for deification of that office.

I do not believe that speculation of the nature that I have alluded to really helps to unravel what may happen at the forthcoming election. What does help is to analyse known factors. Let us look at some of these. First, we know that Peter Caruana will lead the GSD, Fabian Picardo will lead the GSLP and Keith Azopardi will lead the PDP. The leadership of each, meaning not the personality but how each leads his team, will be an or even the crucial deciding element for many in this election. Personality, however, cannot be totally discarded. It always plays its part.

Keith starts from the disadvantageous position of leading the least (by far) supported party. It is for this reason that the PDP needed a charismatic leader. It does not have it in Keith. Keith does not have it in him to enhance the electoral chances of the PDP. It must, consequently rely on two factors to do that. First its policies. Secondly its other candidates. On the first front the PDP's choices have narrowed because the other two parties have adopted democratic reforms as policies, which is what the PDP was majoring on. The result is that, now, the debate will be on detail of these reforms rather than the overall concept. On the second front, all we know to date is that the PDP has a full slate of candidates ... that Nick Cruz and Gigi Vasquez are likely candidates and little more on the identity of its candidature ... not very helpful. One would have thought that a party totally lacking in representation in Parliament would want to announce its candidature early in order to give its candidates as long a time as possible to create a public personae. It seems that this is not to be. There may be a game plan in that strategy but it escapes me.

Fabian, in the perception of some of the public, carries some personal baggage, but who does not? It is in the style of the GSD to pinpoint such baggage. I have doubts that it will impact sufficiently amongst most voters to undermine the GSLP/Liberal's chance of election. If the GSD dedicates its efforts to personal criticisms of Fabian, this has the disadvantage of distracting from real issues. I believe that the important debate is on issues. In this regard, whilst the GSLP/Liberal Alliance (not Fabian alone)  must not ignore personal attacks, it must rebut them robustly, it must not do so in a manner that detracts from policies and substance.

In this regard the GSLP/Liberals have made an excellent start. It has identified the "democratic deficit" issue. It has seen the GSD's failure on this front. It has stepped into a void that the GSD had no need to leave open, nor did it have the right to do so. It promised reforms and never delivered them. There are skeptics who (a) do not believe that the GSLP/Liberals are serious on reforms and (b) say that this policy will not be central to voters' decisions on who to vote for. 

On the first argument, It would be political suicide for the GSLP/Liberals not to undertake reforms having been so explicit on some e.g. freedom of information and having publicly announced its intention to reform the electoral system and Parliament following recommendations from an Independent Commission. Ignoring the Commissions report totally would also be political suicide. The process announced by the GSLP/Liberals also has the advantage that it is likely to deliver broader reforms.

On the second argument, of course there will be many other important issues and debates, but the reform one is equally or more important, certainly in the view of a large number of voters. It is also important for a completely different reason. The GSD persists with its attempts at discrediting the GSLP by constantly regurgitation the pre-1996 state of affairs but what better way to counteract the attempt to create the impression that the GSLP has not changed its spots, than to have policies that would preclude the possibility of that happening? Improved and more accountable democracy is the best check and balance to avoid a return to behaviour similar to that of those disagreeable pre-1996 days. That is not exclusively a problem attaching to the GSLP. It is something that, in the absence of systemic checks, could happen with any party in Government.

The other manner in which the electorate can be convinced that the pre-1996 image of the GSLP is finished and gone (aside from the contents of its manifesto and policies) is the standard of its candidature. One achievement is the change in leadership. Another is that most of its candidates have been in Parliament and for better or for worse are a known quantity. A third is that the standard of potential candidates so far announced is good. We have Dr Norbert Borge, Joe Cortes and George Mascarenhas who may be candidates, subject to selection. All are well respected members of the community, so long as this is the standard of candidates, such persons would not permit themselves to be in any way identified with pre-1996 style GSLP government.

What about the GSD? The massive advantage that it seems to see is that it has been in Government for 16 years and it has achieved a lot in that time. No one will deny it that. Its main achievements, however, are the reversal of the adverse image and reputation that Gibraltar had garnered before its election. However, Gibraltar will not lose its reputation ever again for similar reasons. The lesson has been learnt by all politicians in Gibraltar.

Apart form cleaning up Gibraltar's image, the reality is that the economy has been built up by the GSD on the strong foundations laid by the GSLP pre-1996 administration. This is not a criticism. It is, first, a fact and, secondly, it is necessarily so because Gibraltar's economy can only be built on opportunistically taking advantage of its limited resources: the port, its location (for tourism), size (that delimits requirements) and speed of action on fiscal and regulatory policies. The other reality is that, whilst the government has money coming in and the ability to borrow, it can spend and has the GSD spent! Let us hope that it has not been profligate to a level that the present international economic crisis will not impact badly on Gibraltar's ability to attract revenues. Otherwise in time we will realise that the GSD have bitten off more than what Gibraltar can chew.

The GSD has some electoral problems. The first is undoubtedly wastage. It will over 16 years of Government have upset individual and groups of voters. This is inevitable but makes it more important that the GSD finds other new supporters to vote for it. It will  not do so by attacking the GSLP/Liberals. It will not do so by boasting of past achievements, the electorate has these in the bag already. it will only do so by having new policies and creating a new identity. It has not done much to achieve this. The perception is that it is a party lacking in continuity and in ideas. That it is a party resting on its laurels and those laurels belong to one person: Peter Caruana. It has also failed to react to changing demographics: the passing away of older voters and the advent of the young, who will have very different views from past GSD voters. The GSD are now reacting but it may be too little too late.

Additionally the one individual Minister who can be said to have worked tirelessly to positive effect in his ministry is Daniel Feetham, may not stand at the next election. He has revised and reformed large swathes of law relating to justice. I am  not sure that in practice some of those reforms will not cause issues and too much expenditure for a small jurisdiction like Gibraltar but this is possibly an inevitable cost that we will need to face. I understand the reasons for his not standing; to be stabbed in the presence of his and other children is traumatic. That the stabbing happened because he was Minister for Justice is obvious. That his family and, probably, he feels the risk involved in public office is too great is obvious. My sadness both relates to the event that may force him to resign but also because he has done and behaved in his ministry as I consider an elected Minister should act and behave. He has innovated and held policies, fought for them (including the age of consent law, where the Supreme Court upheld his view), taken them to Parliament and enacted legislation. He has carved out an individual political character for himself to the benefit of his party, the GSD. He is the only person to have done this in the 16 years of GSD Government. The general perception is that all the rest that has been done by the GSD is down to one person: the Chief Minister. 

Therefore the forthcoming election becomes a plebiscite on the Chief Minister. I say that because he has acted in a manner that makes it that way. I hope the other party leaders do not follow suit. I would hope that what we have seen developing so far as the election approaches continues. We have seen the PDP and the GSLP/Liberals announce and debate policies. I hope it continues that way. If the GSD attempts to reduce the election to personalities, in the main, the other parties should  leave the GSD alone to get on with that tactic. I believe it is counterproductive. I believe that voters do not like it. I believe sticking to the issues and to substance will deliver more votes. The GSD may want to ponder on that suggestion too. The GSD have also made the same error as the other parties in not having announced which, if any new candidates it will present to the electorate. 

When do I think the election will be held? Well the 19th October is Gibraltar day in London, so, unless the Chief Minister compounds the error made by his statement about the election on Spanish radio, by announcing the election in London, it will be announced after that date. The election cannot be held before the Electors List is closed on the 31st October. Christmas is fast approaching that leaves only a few Thursdays on which the election can be held, namely, 24th November or the 1st, 8th or 15th December. The 8th is the Immaculate Conception, which is a Catholic Holy Day of Obligation, thus it is an unlikely date, the 15th is too close to Christmas, so we are down to two dates ; we will see.

What do I think will happen at the election? Well I do not disbelieve that so many polls will have got the result too wrong. I also believe in anecdotal evidence, namely natural wastage and demographic alterations. Change is clearly visibly in the air and the GSD are doing little to put a brake on change. All in all I would predict a GSLP/Liberals win by a small but significant margin but all say that a week in politics is a long time ...