In this blog, I will review what each party has said so far on the eve of an announcement of the General Election. The future looks bleak for the GSD according to Opinion Polls but the GSD has not yet been defeated at the ballot box. Many commentators on this blog and word on the street is such that the GSD is not being seen as a potential winner at the forthcoming election. Most polls support this view. It would be foolish, however, to discard the GSD so early on.
PRC is a wily, cunning, intelligent individual and a politician with experience. The GSD will run an aggressive election campaign aimed at having a ruthless effect. All the signs of this are there, just read the 7 Days if you doubt that. The GSD has the advantage of an electorate that is conservative in its voting habits. The GSD has the advantage of having been in power 16 years and having spent our money generously.
The GSD has made at least one massive political error: it has left itself open to be crticised for that which it criticised the GSLP in 1996, namely, lack of open, transparent and democratic government. The other two parties, the GSLP/liberals and the PDP have piled in to fill this void. The GSD has no answer. The GSD has made a second massive error: to beleive that by last minute profligacy with our money it will redress its electoral deficit. I believe that voters in Gibraltar are not so gullible: many see it as a final ego trip for the CM. Let us see what alternatives are on offer from the other parties before returning to the GSD "offering".
The PDP have been at the forefront of preaching reforms that would lead to greater democracy since its inception. In fact long before that, because Keith Azopardi was a GSD Minister. He is the person in the 1996 GSD manifesto who was advocating democratic reforms. Also Nick Cruz was a member of the GSD Executive before the schism. It seems neither was able to deliver on the democratisation front but an analysis of the reasons for the schism may provide a clue. They disagreed with the opportunism of an absorption of the Gibraltar Labour Party and the lack of democratic processes for leadership change within the GSD.
The PDP has indicated its five key pledges for the forthcoming election:
- A new style of politics- accountable, inclusive, responsive and constructive;
- Lower personal tax and better economic management;
- Better opportunities for young people;
- Better quality of life for all and sustainable use of our environment;
- Better public services.
All very laudable sound-bytes. We now need the PDP's manifesto to understand and assess how it intends to achieve these pledgesm and what the detail of these is. They are achievable with strict and proper prioritisation. What I believe in and commend the PDP for is playing the longer game rather than the short game that was played by the Gibraltar Labour Party. If the GSD were to lose the forthcoming election, then the PDP would be perfectly poised to become the second party in politics in Gibraltar for the next but one election. It is difficult to see the GSD surviving an election defeat: it simply is not a party in the sense of the word as I understand it.
Preparation for the forthcoming General election by the GSLP/Liberals has been more precise, specific and focused than the general pledges of the PDP. The first move was to amicably replace Joe Bosanno by Fabian Picardo as leader of the party. The second move has been the reinforcement of that change of personality with a marked change of politics and attitude. This change is best summarised by quoting Fabian Picardo from the GSLP/Liberal press release "Democratic and Political Reforms" of the 1st September 2011:
"Democracy is principally about the people and not just about politicians hence it is vital that every person who has a view is heard, not just the GSD government and the political parties ... we [GSLP/Liberals] have to ask what parliament should be, what it presently is and what it should be in the 21st Century, democracy governed by the rule of law and a commitment to openness and devolving government to the people. ... in a true democracy a Parliament is is the voice of the people ... [and] about holding government ... to account ..."
These are words backed up by specific policy announcements:
- immediate monthly meetings of Parliament;
- dedication of funds to Parliament;
- full time Speaker with a Deputy Speaker and adequate staffing;
- independent website to broadcast meetings of Parliament;
- personal emails for all MPs for direct access by constituents;
- better public, media, staff and MP facilities;
- the appointment of an Independent Commission on Democratic and Political Reform to report on ALL aspects of the electoral and parliamentary system.
In addition the GSLP/Liberals have made the following policy announcements:
- a Ministerial Code;
- a Freedom of Information Act;
- a 20 year rule for publication of "secret" papers;
- a Whistleblowers' Protection Act;
- greater access to Civil Servants by the public;
- a Citizens' Charter for Responsive Government;
- reform of the planning system with true and greater public participation;
- support for the call for a Financial Services Ombudsman;
- a stand alone anti-bribery and anti-corruption law.
Impressive stuff from both parties opposing the GSD at the forthcoming election but what is the response of the GSD to date? Well it is certainly not any indication of a change in Leadership. Why would that be important? I leave aside the issue of personality, as each person will have his/her own opinion on that subject. Lack of change of the leader of the GSD is an important consideration because the failure of the GSD to change the style of government to date, by introducing more democracy, transparency and openness, must rest fairly and squarely on the shoulders of the GSD's leader.
Why should anyone believe that the GSD will make any change on democratic reforms under his leadership, when for 16 years the GSD has reneged on its promise? In fact we know already that it will not. The GSD has forced a Motion through Parliament setting out its parliamentary and democratic reform agenda. This programme, outlined in the Motion, not only fails to deliver much of what is desired but, as an additional criticism, most of what it covers has been in the power of the CM to implement without legislative change throughout his term of office. Why should anyone believe that he will now deliver on any of it? Harsh criticism? Perhaps but, think about it, is it valid and deserved?
So what are the pre-election signs for the GSD so far:
- rush to provide public toilets;
- rush to provide playgrounds;
- rush to provide more parking;
- rush to to finish the Mid-Harbour Housing Project;
- rush to finish the air terminal;
- failure with airport tunnel/ring road.
The question on many people's lips is: how much is all the above costing us, the taxpayer?
What else does the GSD offer to date:
- reminders of long past pre-1996 events as a reason to keep the GSD in government;
- personal attacks on Fabian Picardo, not least in the 7 Days Newspaper;
- Motions in Parliament against Fabian Picardo are ruled out of order as containing "unparliamentary" language, which exemplified the GSD's undemocratic attitude to politics ;
- boast after boast about what has been 'achieved' in the past at the cost of taxpayers;
- a trilateral process that is no longer working;
- questions about the propriety of the last minute application of taxpayers' money to enhance electoral chances;
- no future policies.
What is the GSD byline for the coming election? "Gibraltar has never been better - keep trusting". Certainly the money that has gone into the coffers of government and more that has been borrowed has been spent with great alacrity. You will need to decide whether it has been spent applying the appropriate priorities. "keep trusting" ... well we would have to in the absence of democratic, parliamentary and electoral reforms, wouldn't we?
What is the GSLP/Liberals byline for the coming election? "Vote for Change". I agree with the GSD that change for the sake of change is not a good reason to change a government but that is to miss the point. The point is that if what is promised is policies that are good and with which voters agree, then it is change for a better alternative. Well look at what the GSLP/Liberals has promised already, in that alone it is highlighting issues promised by PRC's GSD and not delivered by it. Look at the manifesto when it is published. Then and only then decide whether it is change for the sake of change or change for the better.
What is the PDP byline for the coming election? "The Real Change". Well, I repeat everything that I have said about change in the previous paragraph. My problem is that it is little change in fact. It is a reversion to what the GSD should have done but did not do. This does not reflect well on those members of the PDP who were Ministers or members of the executive of the GSD: they all failed to change anything on the inside of the GSD. They need to persuade voters that they have the strength that they lacked on the inside to change things from outside of the GSD. It is a party that will initially attract disaffected GSD voters who do not want to shift across to the GSLP/Liberals. It is a party that may prosper, as I have already suggested, if it plays the long game. It has indicated that it will by discarding the possibility of a pre-election merger with the GSD.
Well the election has not been announced yet but the battle lines are being drawn. There will be a lot more to go on to decide who to vote for once the manifestos are published and each party's candidates are announced, but already there is enough to start making one's mind up. Elections are about the future not the past. What has been done in the past can be the subject of praise or criticism but voters already have the benefit or harm of what has been done or not done that should have been done. I know the GSD are not often amenable to advice but my advice to them is: come up with new policies because boasting about the past will not win you the election. Coming up with new policies under the same leader is a difficult, if not an impossible call, but the GSD may succeed in achieving it.