Friday, 26 November 2010

Opinion Poll: an Analysis.

One thing that has been shown to be accurate by the opinion poll in today's Chronic is that I was not wrong in my analysis contained in the piece "Does the GSLP/Lib Alliance have the Will to Win?" which I wrote as far back as the 21st October 2010. Reliance upon a government losing an election is not sufficient to win it. Any political party wanting to win an election must work hard at it. The GSLP/Lib alliance is simply not doing that. Whether or not one supports one or other political party is not the issue. If any political party is not at risk in an election from an opposing political party what suffers is the quality of democracy. If the quality of democracy suffers then society is all the poorer for it.

There is no doubting that the opinion poll results show the GSD ahead. There are a few facts surrounding that poll and the spin surrounding it that merit some thought and analysis, however. These are mine.

We are told that a similar sample of face to face interviewees was polled on this occasion as was polled in April 2010, when the Chronic undertook its last poll that so much favoured the GSLP/Lib alliance. I am sure that this is true but what we are not told is how the sample of interviewees was selected on either occasion. Why is this important and relevant? Quite simply because if the sampling is not done scientifically, the results of any consequent opinion poll can be skewed in one direction or the other. It is generally known that some polling stations favour one party rather than the other. If the sample is chosen, in the main, from a polling station catchment area that favours the GSLP/Lib alliance then the poll result are more likely to show a result that favours the alliance. The opposite is also true.

Without knowing how the sample was chosen there is no way of assessing how accurate either this poll or the one undertaken in April 2010 was, save for one factor. A month after the April 2010 opinion poll Panorama published a poll, the results of which closely resembled the April 2010 Chronic poll. Anecdotally, this would be indicative of the accuracy of the Chronic April 2010 poll, especially as the Panorama poll samples from all polling station catchment areas and more closely follows the anonymity of an election by using the postal services. We will see if Panorama now carries out another opinion poll.

The Chronic goes some way to attempt, self consciously, to explain the enormous (and most unusual and uncharacteristic, in such a short period) swing in favour of the GSD that has so drastically gone against the GSLP/Lib alliance. One statement it makes is that "Six months is a lifetime in politics". This is a taken from Harold Wilson's famous statement that "a week in politics is a long time" and so it is. I do not believe that the factors that the Chronic points to in justification of the massive swing support the contention that a lifetime has gone by in the last 6 months. Where I fully agree with the Chronic is on the failings of the GSLP/Lib alliance that I highlight in the opening paragraph of this piece.

Another point of contention that I have with the Chronic is its assertion that one should discount the "don't knows" because these are excluded in an election. This is a false assertion. In an election there are no "don't knows". There are "don't votes". There are people that do not vote at elections, which is different. No one was asked in this poll "will you or will you not vote", that is a completely different proposition to someone who says "don't know who I will vote for when the election comes round".

"Won't votes" are not the same as "don't knows" in an opinion poll. "Don't knows" have been asked but do not wish to commit at that particular moment. Many of them are likely to vote in an election. The reasons why the "don't knows" poll in that way are many and varied but many of these people are open to be convinced to vote one way or another at an election. It is these votes that are considered to be the floating vote that can so easily change the course of an election. It is these votes that each of the parties are fighting for during an election campaign and prior to it in two senses first to get them to vote and second to have them vote for your party. The other voters are already decided.

Mathematically the GSD, on this last poll, are 8% ahead. This lead can be eaten up in a trice from the "don't knows". Many "don't knows" are shy because they may not wish to identify that they would not vote GSD. There is more likelihood that an opposition party will pick up the "don't knows" than a governing party. Although this is far from being a given and its is these votes that have to be hard fought. The GSLP/Lib alliance are not fighting hard enough.


  1. Fred says:

    I agree.

    The methodology was not explained and Mr Searle speculated as to why the GSD was ahead on this poll, which I was surprised by from him - why where people not asked what had shaped their views? Surely much better than speculation? I do not understand why the Chronicle has risked tarnishing its reputation with this piece of work.

    You are right, the "don't knows" will swing it quickly and savagely against any of the parties, but the GSLP/Libs have more to win if that vote is mostly composed of the largely disgruntled 18-32 year olds.

    I am afraid that the Chronicle has helped no one with this one.

  2. Fred syas:

    PS - I forgot to say that you are also right in saying that the GSLP/Libs do have to pull the proverbial finger out of their behinds.

  3. the GSD is out hombre. d next Caruana number, becose he's in bed with the psoe and spain, is to tell the gibraltarians dat everything from cordoba y tripahartita is resolved y muchas fotos en el 7 days y la cronica. la pelicula del nuevo salvador y profeta befor d elections. tiempo al time. dis man's playing games con los llanis de aqui. los palomos llanitos lo saben y caruana's PR exercise ya empeso on d other side de la frontera. mentira to. muchos aplausos y palmaditas y d house por barrer. a la p calle.

    un pureta

  4. Human nature being what it is I expect that many in the Alliance will claim that the massive swing against them reflects deficiencies in the way the poll was conducted. They are wrong, in my view, the Alliance has been largely absent from a fast moving political scene. Their main players appear uninterested and at best they choose narrow but safe parochial issues. Mostly however their preferred issues are stale and miss the bigger pictures e.g. they will rightly complain about the defective windows at Cumberland Terraces but are not brave enough to tackle the OEM scandal. They hide behind their calls for a forensic audit which they know will never happen to excuse their lack of activity on that major front. I think that the Alliance will suffer their worst defeat ever at the next Election. I am not happy about that because that is not good for Gibraltarian democracy.

  5. The Panorama poll is definately reliable.
    Currently we see on GBC a constant barrage of propaganda from the GSD and it is not balanced.
    Take for instance that new "GSD Party exposure of ministers and their cronies called "News Plus" this is supposed to be the part in which the interviews which have been conducted to be shown fully. This is happening when it is Mr Holiday, or Montiel or any minister. Yet the other day we saw that Dr Garcia had been interviewed on the Mid Town project issue and he was on the news for at least 30 seconds and one would have thought that he was going to be in the "News Plus" But as is usual with the GBC controlled TV station he did not come out. The fact is that in the New Plus only once has an opposition member come out and that was Mr Bossano to talk about the anti-semitic conference he attended in Canada. Guess that could not have been very harmful to the GSD anyway!!
    Lets not forget the episode of the reply to the Ministerial Statement in which it took GBC two weeks to respond!

  6. Anon from above cont...Did not all fit in!
    The Comical is exactly the same. Steven Linares came out criticising the GSD Government on the state of the Mac Hall which is their responsibility in pages 3 or 4 whilst the only one or two days later Mr Reyes (who incidently appears in the comic at times 10 to 12 times on the same day!!) was seen IN THE FRONT PAGE announcing the fact that Gibtelecom had donated 4 computers for the Mac Hall. What a coincidence!! An other example is that the PDP came out criticising the GSD Government for the decline of Cruise Liner visits to Gib and the comic! puts pictures of three cruise liners in port. Out of the three cruise liners in port two were undergoing refurbishment in Gibdock!
    The seven days can be placed in all government departments whilst the others are not.
    I think I make my point and therefore one has to first question how can the Alliance do anything to expose things which they do on a daily basis? What is meant by "that the GSLP/Libs do have to pull the proverbial finger out of their behinds." which I might agree but one has to state what do they have to do?
    If those like Fred above who might even be right that they have to do more can be specific in what is meant then he will have an argument. In fact one should be questioning the Media and it's apparent "INDEPENDENT AND BALANCED REPORTING??"
    I see all opposition members going to functions that they are invited to, IF THEY ARE INVITED! they are very active on the net generally and They bring out publications and press releases constantly. Opposition memebers ask many questions in Parliament and then people criticise the fact that they ask too many questions.
    It's like I said in the past Damned if you do and Damned if you don't.
    What is clear is that many who criticise the Opposition are not going to vote for them anyway since in most democracies the ones that are criticised are the Government of the day.

    In fact on the questions issue the same happens when issues are reported. When they are reported on GBC they are done to give the impression that the Government is announcing things when the reality is that they say things because of the questions asked and not because they are voluntarily announcing things.

    GBC the other day gave a report on the symposium organised by the local engineers and there were three good speakers addressing the issue of energy. Low and behold GBC said that the GSD government was committed to sustainable energy because Mr Holiday gave a brief address and stated this and we all know that it is an electoral gimmick since in the last 14 years they have done nothing for the environment.
    Did you see viewpoint last night in which Mr Britto was exposed by all the panalists at the ineptitute of the GSD on environmental matters. Guess that is one thing that the Alliance might do that is to pressurise GBC to do more of these programmes so as to opposed to the "GSD executive and friends" Programme Talk About Town.

    One last thing the Alliance have three political broadcast whilst the GSD have nine and they will now be showing them from now to Xmas.

    They have to get

  7. I posted at 09.00 and having read the later posts I see that as expected the Alliance is now blaming GBC and the Chronicle for the debacle (as one does). Look guys most people base their decisions on much more than photos of ministers smirking in newspaper photos and on TV; contrary to widely held beliefs in the GSLP people are not stupid. The fact is that the Alliance is not saying or doing anything that inspires confidence. If it is not careful it is going to match the PDP for its wooden performances. Even when the Alliance does get on TV e.g. last nights political broadcast it comes across as amateurish and ill prepared. You really need to get your acts together, chaps.

  8. Anonymous at 13:44:

    What was amateurish and embarassing about last nights Viewpoint was Britto's inability to reply to Fabian's points that the GSD had not delivered on ANY of their manifesto promises on the environment.

    Britto was completelt defeated ... were you watching the same programe as me?

    The Alliance has not said a word on this blog about GBC or the Chronic ... you are defending a position that has not been argued. Are the GSD feeling vulnerable?

  9. Fred says:

    Anon 13:44, I'm going to vote for the Alliance, despite all their shortcomings, just to counter the smugness of the likes of you. I'll probably be able to convince my family and a few of my friends to do the same. As you know in Gib that's probably worth over 100 votes - most of which are in that "I don't know" percentage.

    I expect the Alliance to pull its socks up, but rest assured that there are others in Gibraltar who will not be "bought" by free spectacles for children, 4 new computers from Gibtel at the Mac Hall and the opening of the Dudley Ward Tunnel. We have our eyes still on OEM. MidTown Flop, etc...

    ...and anyway Mr Caruana seems to have done half the job for the Alliance in Sevilla by effectively saying he is in favour of joint-sovereignty, albeit in the wholly unrealistic Andorra configuration: different history, different strategic situation, different political reality. Although I must say that the Andorrans are hell bent in preserving their Catalan language and protecting themselves as a minority... por algo sera.

  10. Ghost says:

    Robert you sound more and more like a GSLP activist, are you having one of those leftist student moments again. I note with interest that in the last poll (in which you also blogged) you were not as critical of the basis upon which it was done - and there I thought you were trying to be balanced and impartial on this blog, this is outrageous....:)

    As if your attempt to be critical which quite frankly came across as party machinery at full speed wasn't enough, I find myself logging on after a hard days work, with a beer (Coronita) ready to be drawn in by your intellect and find this, you latest posting, in which you start throwing your toys out the car on last nights viewpoint!

    Are you seriously suggesting that you found Fabian doing anything other than playing to the gallery; Britto was of course no match intellectually, we all no that, however the realities and practicalities of the environment in Gibraltar were not actually discussed. It became a political ping pong match where we are left none the was the wiser as to the reasons why the new power station is not here today. Creating a proper environmental plan for Gib is harder than anyone had expected, whilst also taking into account the realities of our small areas and high demand for power.

    The GSD may not have been ready for this and you are correct to suggest that they are caught out. I do not believe that anyone including Britto was about to suggest otherwise. What was interesting was that no one had the thought to ask Fabian (Mr Picardo) who actually agreed with Britto on the fact that realities are quite different, whether or not his cast iron commitment in the last election to make Gibraltar carbon neutral was something he was willing to admit was a complete red herring; the prospect of which today is laughable!

    I believe it was Peter Montegriffo who said that the environment should not be an issue up for political hijack; Gibraltar has an opportunity to get it right, but not at the cost of politicians claiming that one or the other can do it better. I thought even you would appreciate this Robert....shame on you....:)


  11. Ghost:

    your ability to accuse others of party political bias simply betrays your own prejudice. In turn this simply reflects the subjective ability of the GSD to believe that it is the only objective political force in Gibraltar. This is a dangerous state of affairs.

    Your inability to objectively analyse what I write betrays you. I do not criticse the basis of the most recent poll anymore than I criticise the last one. I make a comparison. I question the basis of sampling of both polls but then compare the results of the April 2010 poll with the results of the Panorama poll. Please be more incisive in your criticism.

    Fabian may have been playing to the gallery. He has a master in the GSD from whom to learn, except that yesterday the master lost his way by suggesting joint sovereignty despite leading a vote against it in 2002. Fabian was being a true opposition politician on Viewpoint. He was reading GSD manifesto promises and showing up GSD broken promises. Why should anyone vote for a government that breaks its manifesto promises? It is not about a comparison of Fabian's and Ernest's intellectual abilities. It is about TRUTH.

    The TRUTH is that after 15 years Gibraltar does not have the promised new power station, be it environmentally friendly or not. There was a promise by the GSD that there would be power produced by a new power station with part produced from renewable sources by 2010. We have no new energy at all! Should we believe GSD election manifesto promises?

  12. Fred says:

    Robert, don't you find Ghost patronising? And he drinks Corona ("Coronita", as he calls it; sign of a bloke trying to be trendy, who has no real taste for beer, can't handle anything stronger, or all three. Outrageous really.

  13. Ghost says:

    Robert I quote from your last post:

    "The TRUTH is that after 15 years Gibraltar does not have the promised new power station, be it environmentally friendly or not."

    Are you seriously telling me that you prefer to have a Govt that will not accept its mistakes and make corrections in the best interests of the community so that it does not get called out on viewpoint or by your ramblings on LW? And whilst one is right to question why that power station is not there today and take a view on whether he/she accepts the reasons for this, should we not also consider the oppositions remarks at pledging something that we know now to be completely erroneous and driven only by political gain with absolutely no care for reality and responsibility to the electorate. Give me a break......!

    I can only assume that you really are having a bad day; your reference alone to Fabian's master in the GSD from whom he has learned is quite literally worthy of comic relief - you should take that idea to GBC open day, they might have a field day !.......for the love of God Robert, I know you don't like PC, but making that sort of comparison with Fabian....really.

    You mention joint sovereignty, I assume you are referring to the suggestion made by PC to Andorra (which was caveated by a referendum for llanitos to decide on with facts). Out of curiosity you did know that back in the early 90's Joe Bossano sent Juan Carlo Perez ( I think it was him) to Andorra in order to explore the possibility of seeking an autonomous status for Gib. He met with the first minister in which he was able to review the constitution and the relationship with both protectorates - I can only imagine that any possibility of this would have hit a brick wall with the threat of direct rule in 95. I am sure though that you will hardly hold this fact to account in the same way that you have just done with recent news.

    You either play a great devils advocate Robert or are simply so rigid as to be completely oblivious of the bigger picture.

    You also provide a good alternative to I'm a celebrity get me out of here". For this I am eternally grateful.


  14. Ghost says:
    Fred ................:) you are right, I have become somewhat of a light weight. Don't mean to be patronizing?....light hearted yes, its friday after all.

  15. Ghost

    Please do not personlise the argument. The feelings that you attribute to me about PRC are your unsupported views. I deal with issues not personality.

    I do not talk of mistakes: you do. I call them what they are: broken promises to the electorate.

    I am just SO glad that my ramblings keep you SO interested. It is not a compulsory read. You volunteer to read.

    I really do not care wether the GSLP went to Andorra or not nor am I interested in party political propaganda about what happened in the past. I am interested in the future and putting into perspective current events.

    What I find a little odd is that it should be suggested that we cannot apply 18th century solutions to 21st century problems and in the same breath suggest a medieval solution, namely a joint principality! Has Monty Python returned to Gibraltar's international policies?

  16. Ghost says:
    Robert - apologies if you felt I was being personal, I feel as though I know you and only on this basis did I feel comfortable to express myself in this way; I would not dream of spinning this as a compliment, but would say that I thoroughly enjoy this banter with you. My apologies again to you; although I think you've hit me pretty hard in the past..:)

  17. Fred says, quoting Wikipedia :) :

    "In the eleventh century, a dispute arose between the Bishop of Urgell and the Count of Foix. The conflict was resolved in 1278 with the mediation of Aragon by the signing of the first paréage which provided that Andorra's sovereignty be shared between the count of Foix[14] (whose title would ultimately transfer to the French head of state) and the Bishop of Urgell, in Catalonia. This gave the principality its territory and political form."

    True that now they have the new constitution, which virtually gives them independence, within a European context that essentially contextualises its foreign relations, therefore little room for dispute.

    But, picture the scenario in 2025: the new Queen Elizabeth carrier and a task force deploying unilaterally deep into the Atlantic in defence of British interests in West Africa or the Soth Atlantic... and the Spanish Crown objects... Gib is not Andorra... it will not work.

  18. Ghost

    My reference to personalising was to your suggestion that I do not like PRC. He is my first cousin. What I say in this blog is political and not personal criticism or reflective of my feelings at a personal level of anyone.

    You are welcome to attack me personally as much as you like. It will not make one iota of difference to how I am, how I behave or what I write.

  19. Ghost says:
    Joder Robert que duro eres....:) But yes again you are right and it was an oversight on my part.....thats two apologies from me in the space of 10 minutes. Si lo supiera mi mujer me mata. I am aware that he is your cousin and that your differences are political and not personal.

  20. Fred says:

    Conyo, Ghost, Robert! Stop the bromance and get back to the politics!

  21. UnmaskPeterThePiedPiper27 November 2010 at 00:42

    I cannot believe (well, I lie, in a way I can), Peter Caudillo's public statement of personally backing an Andorra type situation for us. More shocking is the lack of PROPER REACTION from us LLanitos!!! Is everybody hibernating now that the cold dreary wet weather has set in???? As a people we are really losing the plot. I cannot believe the LACK of reaction. And let's not talk about our Public Broadcaster the GBC and our daily read the Gibraltar Comical - both just report on the statement with no attempt at opinion or a vox pop that could have easily filled the very imagintive News Plus! I hope to awake from this very surreal moment on Monday and find the Comical filled with Letters and opinion, and our coffee shops packed to the rafters with true llanito-sossip/debate of the statement!

  22. Mirror-on-Wall: I recommend an article in the Daily Telegraph on line today by one Robert Webb (no pun intended). Among his intersting comments is: "But in chatrooms, on forums, all over the web, you will find a class of self-important dweeb, hectoring everyone else about how they are misusing or misunderstanding the medium"". A good read for all the loyal readers of LW.

  23. Andorra has been an independent state and member of the United Nations since 1993, as Jamie Trinidad rightly says on Fabian's wall in Facebook. Jamie cites Article 1(1) of the Andorran constitution as confirming its status as an independent state, Article 1(3) as stating that "sovereignty is vested in the Andorran people", and Article 43(2) as saying that the co-princes of Andorra "are in their personal and exclusive right, the Bishop of Seo d'Urgell and the President of the French Republic." So Gib would be independent with its own seat at the UN and with the Bishop of Cadiz and Queen of Gibraltar as titular heads? That what Caruana wants? Would it work?

  24. Robert Webb the comedian?

    How about this post: a joke or an alternative solution?

    Anonymous said...

    The legal title to the sovereignty of Gibraltar should be held by the Pope on trust in perpetuity for all the people of Gibraltar with the agreement of the Gibraltarians and at the request of Great Britain and Spain.

    The true political and spiritual dimensions of this option would be God's direct blessing upon our community, Great Britain and Spain.

    The uncomfortable and constant evilness that thrives and lives on from this constant political quandry for the three sides would be defeated once and for all.

    Let us pray that St. George slays this nasty and soul-eating political dragon.

    18 September 2010 14:19

  25. El barco se hunde, vienen tormentas gordas y muchos de los pijos no saben remar, las auguas son de otros, el poco suelo urbano lo han vendido a lo ricachones extranjeros, el aeropuerto no despega, las cosas de palacio vienen despacio pero en Gibraltar no llegan y cuando llegan son tardes, no trabajan bien y cuestan mucho dinero, los analisis de la economia son conflictivos y muy preocupantes de cara al futuro, mucho tabaco, gasolina y contaminacion, todo carisimo pero poco turismo, mucho 10% pero palos para los empresarios chicos, una economia que la mantiene en pie el gran gasto publico, la mayoria de los cuidadanos entrampados en deudas hasta los ojos para tener un hogar y un coche, la administracion publica pesa una tonelada y es lenta, problemas sociales gordos, mucha droga, mucha tension politica, barcos pero para adornar en casa, pescado pero de nevera, trafico todos los dias, ect, ect, ect - la cara amarga de la nueva moneda de Gibraltar.

    La solucion para muchos de los pijos es el modelo de ANDORRA porque ni saben ni quieren remar en igualdad de condiciones que los demas monos. Es ahora o jamas.

    De ahi a mantener lo imposible, imposiblemente bueno para otros, en los contratos millonarios para aparcamientos, projectos y casas que un padre de familia no puede costear, que los pensionistas no paguen un duro sin importar su situacion economica, que los funccionarios publicos tengan summer hours, pensiones y regalias, las ideas economicas son limitadas a la economia de la tinta y papel, muchas buenas palabras y globos al aire pero poca hermandad de verdad, la fuidez fronteriza inexistente y que problema tan grande para los de sotogrande y los que vivan al norte de la verja, pero todavia hay dinero y ese nivel de vida a mantenerlo y da igual de los demas, ect, ect, ect.

    La cara dulce de la nueva moneda de Gibraltar.

    Con que moneda cobran ustedes? Y con que moneda cobraran con la solucion ANDORRANA?

    Sera que estamos donde hoy porque esta era la politica sobreguardada de Caruana y lo que a dictado toda su politica y propaganda en esta decada y mierda?

  26. Caruana should make public his Andorra proposals immediately.

  27. As a Gibraltarian I for one would COMPLETELY REJECT an ANDORRA type situation for our Gibraltar. PC has discreetly dropped the bomb - he favours some sort of Spanish make-up in a future Gibraltar! For 300 years we have been resisiting the Spanish, and this man goes and washes our history and desires down a drain in a milisecond with a passing remark made in some Spanish tertulia!

    Caruana has REALLY LOST the PLOT!

  28. Anon 13:21 AGREE. I cannot understand why the Gibraltar media reported on the statement but FAILED to look into by interviewing Caruana and getting all the facts from him. Are the media sleepy or were they not allowed to ask???

  29. Ghost says :

    I think you should all calm down, we are no closer to being Spanish today than we were 300 years ago. If you really want to look back at the last time we were under threat of Spanish rule you would need to go back to 1995 in which we were very nearly negotiated out of any right to determine anything about our future.

    This knee jerk reaction that some of us have is tantamount to a mad frenzy which in this case carries absolutely no substance at all. Have any of you actually seen or read the context under which Andorra was mentioned? It was related to a quetion in the Europa Forum (Andalucia) in which PRC is asked what status we have as a territory; his answer was that although he is adequately content with the progress we have made in the last decade and that our self govt enjoys no influence from any other state, he confirms that he personally has further aspirations for Gibraltar at the will of the people of Gibraltar and that of the many possibilities that we might have, Andorra is one that he may consider taking to the people under a referendum and with the facts at hand - he goes in to say that it is his duty and responsibility to protect the will and decision of the people of Gibraltar on all counts.

    On that matter of bilateral negotiations on soveriegnty between Britain and Spain, he clearly states that in his view it will be as futile attempt in the future as it has proved in the past, (which you will all recall he defended and all but had Peter Hayne fired). He declares to the spanish press in Spain that although Spain is a modern democracy, she continues to cling to a treaty drafted over 300 years ago with no thought or duty to the her international human rights obligations that she has also signed up to (more recently than 300yrs ago) and that this is no way for a modern democratic partner to act....there is so much more that is said and I urge that before you shoot down the messenager, you watch the debate for yourself. I havd attached the link:

    Fórum Europa Tribuna Andalucía con Peter Caruana

    I am thefirst to admit that he has been in too long and that one can most certainly argue that any deocracy is best served with proactive and supported change, his tenure and leader borders on undemocratic at best and dictatorial at worst but only because of the length of time that he has been leader for and what that may do to democracy.

    Having said this, and I am sorry to have to tell you this, his defence of Gibraltar remains unquestionable and if you were to be objective in your analysis of the debate attached, I have no doubt you would agree. I would prefer though that you do not comment if you have not viewed it. Falling prey to here say or listening only to what you may think is fact at the will of others that ask for your trust will do us all no good.


  30. Robert many elderly in Gibraltar and indeed Spaniards welcomes some Spanish write ups since many cannot follow the political legal terminology or slang used.

    I have taken the liberty of translating the Anon 27 NOVEMBER 2010 13:18 without permission it’s up to you to add or delete

    Anonymous said.
    The boat is sinking, come storms fat and many of the many do not know rowing, the waters are other, the little land have sold to the rich foreigners, the airport will not take off, things of palace come slowly but in Gibraltar have not arrive and when they eventually do, do not work well and cost much money, the analysis of the economy are conflicting and very worrying for the future, much tobacco, petrol and pollution, all expensive but little tourism, much 10 percent but sticks to the entrepreneurs boys, an economy that keeps on foot the great public spending, most of the citizens ensnared in debts to the eyes to have a home and a car, the Public administration weighs a ton and is slow, big social problems, many drugs, much tension politics, boats but for garnish at home, fish but of refrigerator, traffic every day, etc. The bitter face of the new currency of Gibraltar.

    The solution for many of the PIJOS is the ANDORRA model because they neither know nor want to row on equal terms and conditions with the other monkeys. It is now or never.

    To maintain the impossible, impossibly good for of others, in their millionaires contracts for car parks, projects and houses that many father of a family cannot afford, that the pensioners do not pay a penny regardless of their economic situation, that the public employees have summer hours, pensions and royalties.

    The economic ideas are limited to the economy of the paper and ink, many good words and balloons into the air but little brotherhood of truth, That the non-existent flow of traffic at the frontier border being a problem so great for those living in Sotogrande and those who live north of the fence, but yet there is money and that level of life to maintain and are not bothered about the others etc.

    The new sweet face of the new currency for Gibraltar.

    What currency do we use today AND what currency will we use with the ANDORRANA solution?

    Perhaps we are where we are today because this was the ultimate hidden policies and intentions of Caruana in his entire political and propaganda in this decade and shit?
    Translation of anon 27 Nov 13-18


  31. Ghost

    Thank you, did he or did he not say that he personally would be prepared to take the Andorran joint sovereignty model to the people in referendum? You say he did. He is Chief Minister, that makes what he says policy. Accepted that you put it in context but does it change what he said? All it does is place a safety net, the opinion of the people of Gibraltar, between his policy and his ability to implement it. In which case why did he make the statement? Is he flying a kite? Is he opening up a path Peter Montegriffo to return to frontline politics? I do not know but said it he did. It is for him to defend it.

    It is he who attends the Trilateral Process to negotiate "cooperation". What is "cooperation" in this context? does he try and negotiate an Andorran model and then put it to the people in referendum like he did the 2006 Constitution? That puts everything back to front and do you know why? Because he is the Chief Minister and has the power. The people get to choose a foregone conclusion ...

  32. Fred says:

    Ghost, I'm not so much in a "frenzy", as totally bemused by the Andorra comment, and if my inbox is anything to go by so are a lot of other folk.

    The fact is that he made the comments, and now he has to explain them. I mean, what sort of signal does this send to Spain? Carracao swiftly pounced on the comment as an opening.

    Tantamount to showing a bit of ankle and saying that some of us are still up for a bit of flirting (...maybe more, wink, wink...) on the sovereignty side.

    But, not I for one.

    I'm afriad the palomo shows its feathers. And it's what happens when you dream of becoming Monaco, but have to find sovereignty model that suits your chums in Madrid.

  33. Ghost says:

    Clearly none of you have taken the opportunity of listening to the debate; if you had you would have realized that his defense of Gibraltar is unquestionable. If you can not understand the context on which it was based you are either ignorant (which I do not believe) or simply unprepared to accept that whilst you may not agree with PRC's domestic policies, economic, foreign or any other, he has positioned Gibraltar internationally and has the gravitas and respect to be heard by international forums.

    This 15 year obsession on el palomo de Caruana has absolutely no basis or foudation to support it; it is however one of the few scaremongering tactics that the opposition hangs on to dearly, much like the supposed dying economy, unemployment, monaco dream, the poverty stricken youth with no future, may well be effective and it may well pay off at the next general election.

    Robert I see your point on "is he flying a kite" he may well be, I do not think there is a relationship between this and PM, however, he may well be flying a kite to both Spain and Gib; under no circumstances is he creating policy. For what its worth, I personally do not believe that an Andorra style status with joint protectarates is a short term viable solution. Our community regardless of whatever autonomy the status may provide, will not swallow a Bishop from Cadiz as titular jointly with the Queen. However, to explore the possibilities is exactly that people and nothing more; and if we gain something out of the process (in the unlikely event that this kite has wind underneath it), great, if not we continue to soldier on with our rightful battle, which to date in my view remains a success and has in no way or form lost us any ground, but rather put us on the map.
    Christ can you imagine this sort of dialogue and influence 20 years ago?....what are you afraid of here?

    Its the X factor people...los enrogamos con el tema?


  34. Ghost

    I have now listened to PRC's talk at the Forum Europa Tribuna. As expected and is characteristic PRC's defense of Gibraltar is formidable and robust as always. But his statement on Andorra style solution stands and that is what is critcised by some here. I do not subscribe to jibes about palomos. This is incendiary and unhelpful to any debate on any issue about Gibraltar. It lacks any intelect and is simply destructive and divisive. We do not need that we need mature consideration and debate.

  35. Fred says:

    Mr Caruana does defend Gibraltar robustly in a legalistic manner, but he erred in terms of political judgement. This at a time when many of us are questioning the tripartite process, faced as we are with Spanish assertiveness over our waters, the impending tax case, and from the unsavoury behaviour from the mayor of La linea.

    The fact stands that in the same breath that he is ostensibly defending our interests he also lays on the table his view that some sort of joint sovereignty solution Andorra style is acceptable to him. And, this statement is seized upon by a prominent Spanish senator as an opportunity to start a dialogue that goes beyond co-operation, which is ostensibly what the tripartite is about.

    Yes, we should discuss these matters, but perhaps Mr Caruna may wish to discuss them with his people before floating the idea to a Spanish audience.

  36. Fred says:

    Robert, I apologise for using the term "palomo", which I admit has become derogatory, although it was not in 1968 when the letters were signed. I would not condone the type of behaviour that followed the 1968 joint sovereignty proposals. No individual, their family or property should be trated in this manner.

  37. There are some who have criticised others for labeling the Andorran model as joint sovereignty when their 1993 treaty gives them so much autonomy that they even have a place in the UN. That is so but to those who make this point the issue becomes what degree of sovereignty by Spain over Gibraltar is acceptable or not. That takes us into a completely new space that Gibraltar has not occupied before. If people want to go there fine.

    And Fred, yes "palomo" was not derogatory originally. It was corrupted and made a vulgar term by ill informed opinion. Unfortunately in Gibraltar it has these bad connotations, whilst everywhere else it symbolises peace.

  38. Quill said......

    I too have been noticing far too many instances of critics of the government (be it PDP, GSLP/LIBS or who whoever) being on the receiving end of blatant spin in the media in favour of this Government.

    The classic case of the PDP criticising the GSD Government for the decline of Cruise Liner visits to Gib on page 3 of the chronicle this last week did not go unnoticed, when bang next to it was a picture as large as the critical artical itself, of three cruise liners in port. The fact that the print below the picture stated that 2 out of the three cruise liners in port were undergoing refurbishment in Gibdock did not matter! What became blatanly obvious was that the picture definately undermined the very article next to it without any doubt. It was either sheer coincidence or pure incompetance by the proof reader (who should be the Editor) before going to print. You can make your own deductions.

    That there is far too much unhealthy intervention and spin in the media from the Government, is plain for all to see. In GBC's case all governments (not just the GSD but the AACR and GSLP too) have had the purse strings. In the Chronicle's case it is a similar situation. Therefore if an entity requires a considerable subvention (from government) to remain open or owes a large amount of money (to government), then neither is going to bite the hand that feeds it, but rather it will HAVE TO lick the very hand that is feeding it.

    Sadly neither of the entities hold any serious journalistic credibility any more and both mediums are seen by many as a joke in Gibraltar. They (Chronicle/GBC) think or hope that most people have forgotten the truth behind their sharade or possibly that the public in general are not fully aware of it, in both caes however it serves the same purpose...that of self denial (that they no longer hold complete and unbias editorial independence).

    As regards to the Chronicle poll it is lamentable that such a prestigious and old daily newspaper should stoop so low. Either the journalist takes its readers for being gullible fools or the whole poll itself has been inappropriately and amateurishly carried out. The points raised by Robert highlight this fact.

    Perhaps the debate on the Chronicle poll could be expanded to include the truely unhealthy influence the Government has on the most important and influential media in Gibraltar. They are after all the only daily newspaper, the only TV station and the only Radio station on the Rock (BFBS is no longer based in Gibraltar).

    I trust that Robert (as administrator of this blog), who has had personal experience as an ex-GBC member of the Board, may wish to add to my angle of thought for further debate and rather than question the poll itself question the reasoning behind the way the poll was carried out and then the way it was actually portrayed.

  39. Quill said.............

    I Forgot to mention last night/early this morning that PC may have laid on the table his view that some sort of joint sovereignty solution Andorra style is acceptable to him, but that comment if a personal one (rather than Government policy) should not have been made in the first place, whilst he is Chief Minister. He should test the ground at home first rather than create false hopes to Spanish senators and to Sapnish public opinion.

    However putting that aside for a moment how about being a little more creative and throw in the ring some sort of joint sovereignty solution EU style, between the Presidency of the EU and our Queen, with the condition that if the UK ever left the EU we would revert back to being solely a British territory (without any strings attached to Utretch.

    Ah! Food for thought! Para comerse el coco!