Saturday, 13 March 2010

Opinion Polls- Smoke and Mirrors.

The Gibraltar Chronicle in its passive and inimical style today publishes an opinion poll and without analysis comes to the conclusion that the GSD win.

Leaving to one side that the poll is commissioned by a biased publication: 7 Days, which is a GSD party organ, the reality is that a true and proper reading of that poll (and assuming it was done scientifically, which is doubtful) the GSD do NOT win the poll. The winners with a massive 37.2% are the UNDECIDED who beat the GSD's 32.73% by nearly 5%.

What a sad indictment on the GSD Government. A government elected as recently as just over 2 years ago with the support of 50% of those voting have bored enough people and have been so unimpressive that their own support is so massively down! The odds are that the undecided will more likely vote against them than in their favour, but lets leave that argument to one side as it is speculative.

What a sad indictment on the GSLP/Lib Opposition that (if this poll is accurate) their support has fallen so massively since the last election. It has fallen in the face of a Government losing popularity. Their failure is so much greater than that of the GSD Government. If a Government is losing popularity, the normal result is that an Opposition party gains voters, but no, the gainers in this poll are the "UNDECIDED"!

The reality is that the GSLP/libs have always obtained about 40% of the votes in an election. it is very unlikely that they will have lost this core support, whatever the results of this poll say. The speculative conclusion one can come to is that the increase in the "UNDECIDED" is detrimental to the GSD and favours the GSLP/Libs.

What a sad indictment on the PDP. They cannot make any inroads even when both the GSD Government and the GSLP/Lib Opposition are losing popularity. Give up Keith! At least try smiling when you walk down the street and talk to people. You may not have realised it but you do need their vote. If you are ever to have a chance of gaining some more votes you need to get happy! I know "simpatia" is not the reason Caruana is Chief Minister (that was down to luck and a quirk in Gibraltar's political history when he was first elected) but do not follow his example you can be sure that being "simpatico" will get you some votes.

All in all, what a failure of our political classes. None of them can inspire enough confidence to get voters to decide who to vote for! They should all be ashamed of themselves. They are clearly living in a world of their own completely unconnected with the people of Gibraltar: debating in Parliament and in the press about nothing that interests voters and advertising policies that gain no votes.

The door is wide open for a new leader with new ideas to walk in and win an election. Is our youth so devoid of ideas and enthusiasm that no one will grab this chance? If that is the case the future is not good for Gibraltar politics ... and, you know what, a void (even a political void) is always filled... beware of the UK and Spain taking advantage of this emptiness!

Use Pseudonyms Please

Its encouraging to see how many more people are commenting.

It would be easier and better if people who comment take up pseudonyms as then we can all tell that comments are coming from different persons whilslt anonymity is maintained.

Sunday, 7 March 2010

Post-colonial inferiority

One of the Hon. Peter Caruana's mantras is that the 2006 Constitution ended Gibraltar's colonial relationship with the United Kingdom. This blogger does not believe that to be the case but those who do, like Mr Caruana, might learn to behave in a way more commensurate with not acting in a typically post-colonial self conscious manner.

Gibraltar is privileged to have an enormous pool of talented and able persons. It has a highly educated and well trained pool of professionals. There are limits, however. Frequently (and rightly) expertise is brought in from other countries to fill gaps in the available talent pool. This is not only wise but necessary in a small territory like Gibraltar.

Many in officialdom are increasingly (and for purely political reasons) "Gibraltarianising" (sic) more and more posts and offices and justifying the employment of local resources without fully ensuring the adequacy of those appointed to undertake their functions and responsibility. This is a self conscious neo-post colonial reaction that is redolent of behaviour arising from feelings of inferiority. decisions made on this reasoning also have a habit of resulting in the exact opposite effect of that intended because often they lead to the escalation as opposed to the resolution of issues or problems that they are intended to cure.

A recent example is the engagement of three of Gibraltar's largest law firms to assist the administrator who is intervening in the Marrache & Co law firm (see the blog below "Hat Tricks - a Conflict of Interests"). Some lawyers suggested that a solicitor's firm (and there are many in England) that specialises in these types of intervention should have been engaged. They reasoned that not only would Gibraltar benefit from their expertise (no intervention in a law firm having been undertaken previously by any of the three firms engaged or the administrator appointed) but that the intervention exercise would be done cheaper, better, quicker and avoiding conflicts of interests. This proposal was not subjected to detailed consideration. It was turned down outright without any reasons being given.

Let us hope, for the sake of the reputation of the judiciary, the legal profession and the finance centre as a whole that the decision to engage these three law firms in the task of intervening will not have adverse consequences or result in additional or greater scandal.

It is a sign of maturity, not one of inferiority, to take the right decisions for the right reasons. Those in power might be well advised to dwell on this thought before taking important decisions that could have unwanted adverse consequences on our community.

Mintoff and Malta come to mind.

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

GSLP and Freedom of Information

The Hon. Fabian Picardo MP has complained about the non-publication, by the GSD government, of Mr. Allan King's full report into GBC and of the Audience Survey referred to in it. He is right to complain of this but why does he and his party fall short of seeking publication of all information (subject to some defined restrictions) held by the Government and indeed any public authority?

Internationally, in the democratic world, the right of individuals to have access to information held by public authorities is recognised and legislation allows for substantial freedom of access to such information. Certainly this is the case both in the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

The logical conclusion based on Mr. Picardo's arguments is that he should be advocating the enactment of a Freedom of Information Act in Gibraltar. Why does he not make this his and his party's policy? is it that he and his party will want to be selective in what is published if they are elected into government? Many may surmise that this is the reason.